As the monsoon gets into the rainiest month of July, the country is faced with a situation where exactly half the total number of meteorological subdivisions (18) find themselves in the normal to above normal rainfall category, while the other half languishes in deficit. 

Regionally, East and adjoining East-Central India, North Peninsular India, and parts of the South Peninsula are in deficit of up to -59 per cent; while North-West India and adjoining Central India are in the normal to above-normal category. Only Marathwada falls in the large-deficit category (-60 per cent or above). 

Heavy rain for West Coast

On Monday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated the West Coast will continue to be treated to heavy to very rain variously during the next five days. Overall, it will be light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to heavy falls. Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely over Kerala until Wednesday and over Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka on Tuesday. 

Over West India, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Konkan and Goa as also the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during next five days and over and Gujarat on Thursday and Friday. 

Rains for West, North-East India

Towards the East and North-East India, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur during this phase. Extremely heavy falls are likely over Meghalaya on Tuesday. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Bihar and Jharkhand on Tuesday and over Odisha from Wednesday to Friday. 

The monsoon trough across the plains of North-West India lies in the normal position, but a rogue trough runs from down from the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim to north Chhattisgarh. Separately, a cyclonic circulation lies over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal.

Offshore fluctuating

The offshore along the West Coast fluctuates from being full-blown (Gujarat to Kerala) to truncated (South Maharashtra to Kerala on Monday). A cyclonic circulation each lies over North-West Uttar Pradesh and South Gujarat completing the network of atmospheric features presiding over the wet weather over the respective regions over land.

Over North-West India, light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy rain is likely over Uttarakhand during the next five days and East Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday; and over Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday.