India is most likely to see normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September), quantitatively 94-99 per cent of its long period average (LPA) of 422.8 mm. But there could be below normal rainfall during August as monsoon may take a break for two weeks in other parts of the country after moving to foothills of the Himalaya.

Releasing the update on rainfall during June and July, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday that the country has received 467 mm rainfall in the first two months of monsoon season, which is five per cent more than normal. If IMD’s forecast for next two months proved correct, and even if minimum 94 per cent rainfall is received, it will add another 401.7 mm, potentially helping the season with a normal rainfall.

He said during August, normal to above normal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the subdivisions which are close to the Himalaya, east central India, and Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. But, IMD said below normal rainfall may be observed over most parts of south Peninsula, central India and in western parts (Rajasthan and Punjab) of north-west subdivision.

IMD’s director general said that the El Nino impact is there as it moves from weak to moderate, now. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may be positive helping monsoon to thwart the negative impact of El Nino, which has turned moderate from weak, he added.

While India recorded 13 per cent excess rainfall in July, east and north-east region of the country recorded the third lowest precipitation in the month since 1901, he said. On the other hand, north-west India recorded the highest rainfall in July since 2001, Mohapatra said.

After nine per cent deficit in June, India saw a turnaround in monsoon rains in July thanks to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), coupled with higher than normal number of low pressure system and western disturbances, he said.

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