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The strong monsoon over Central India has conjured up a low-pressure area over land over East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh this (Tuesday) morning.
A causatory cyclonic circulation had hung over North Odisha and adjoining plains of Bengal the previous evening, and had moved West overnight to in turn earn spurs as a 'low' over land.
Strong monsoon
This pointed to the strength of the monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal, with a counterpart circulation keeping guard at the other end of the all-important monsoon trough over South-West Rajasthan.
The monsoon trough is what determines the spread of the rainfall on its either side (North India and Central India), and the circulation is combining with the 'low' to keep the trough dynamic and productive.
The trough passes through Barmer, Chittorgarh, Vidisha, centre of the 'low' over East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh, Jamshedpur, Balasore, and thence south-eastwards to the East-Central Bay.
Meanwhile, the cyclonic circulation over South-West Rajasthan and neighbourhood had thrown up a trough of its own yesterday (Monday) that had ran down to Interior Odisha.
The monsoon is known to keep firing on all cylinders within the comfort zone of the monsoon trough. A secondary trough as in this case indicates the strength of counterpart flows from the Arabian Sea.
This morning though, the trough from South Rajasthan to Odisha runs from South Gujarat and adjoining North Maharashtra to Interior Odisha across the 'low' over East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh.
Follow-up 'low'
In another development, the India Met Department (IMD) has signalled the formation of another 'low' over the North-East Bay by August 4 (Saturday), which BusinessLine had mentioned already in these columns.
The current 'low' would start weakening over East India in anticipation of the 'big brother' from across Indo-China, drifting in as a remnant of a typhoon over the South China Sea and intensifying.
In fact, this 'low' is expected to beat its predecessors this season in terms of intensity, if available forecasts are any indication, possibly hitting the Bengal-Odisha coast as a depression as early as by August 5 (Monday).
It would weaken on landfall, and weaken while pushing West into South Uttar Pradesh by August 8 (Thursday next) by when another 'low' will have been initiated over the Odisha coast.
In this manner, all available indications suggest that the monsoon would keep itself in robust health going into the second week of August in line with forecast by global weather models till date.
The IMD is expected to come out with its own forecast for August and September anytime soon, and is expected to take cognizance of the weakening El Nino in the Pacific and status of the 'dipole' kin in the Indian Ocean.
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