After many years, India’s kharif output this year is set to fall. Rice output, according to a recent report in this newspaper, is expected to be 3.8 per cent lower than kharif 2022 output, according to the first advance estimates put out by the Agriculture Ministry. With pulses and coarse grains output down by 6.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, overall kharif foodgrains output is expected to be nearly 5 per cent lower at 148 million tonnes (rice at 106 million tonnes, four million tonnes less than last year).

The shortfall in oilseeds (nearly five million tonnes), cotton (two million bales) and sugarcane (six million tonnes) is estimated at 17.7 per cent, 5.9 per cent and 11.4 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, the US weather agency has said that 21.6 per cent of the country faces “drought conditions”. The effects of deficient rainfall can vary across the country. There is no dire situation as yet. The rainfall has been deficient (20-59 per cent below the long period average) in south interior Karnataka, the north-east, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, eastern UP and Kerala, although the all-India report card points to a shortfall of 6 per cent from the long period average. These regions could need immediate relief measures. However, ground reports suggest that the standing crop in parts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is unfit for human consumption but usable as fodder.

Livestock GDP, which accounts for about a quarter of agri GDP, may not be severely hit. It is undeniable that improved irrigation has reduced the impact of rain shortfall on crop output. Groundwater levels are not low everywhere, as the monsoon was good last year. But in the badly hit areas, there is no time to be lost. The States must be proactive in declaring drought, so that the central teams can follow up and take necessary relief (and crop insurance) steps. Earlier this month, Karnataka declared almost all its taluks as drought hit. In doing so, a State is supposed to follow norms laid down in the Centre’s drought manual of 2016, which include: three or four weeks of dry spell in a region; a rainfall deficit of over 60 per cent; completion of sowing; 50 per cent of crop loss.

However, the Karnataka government may have a point in asking for a fine-tuning of these conditions, keeping in mind diverse agro-climatic conditions across regions, be it water availability or farm practices. The 60 per cent bar for drought seems high when a deficiency of 20-59 per cent can wreak havoc. The same could hold true for dry spell period. The distribution of a particular level of rainfall over time could impact crops differently. Upon declaration of drought, the Reserve Bank of India’s 2018 rules can be invoked, which lay down conditions for restructuring of crop loans if the crop losses are at over 33 per cent. Fasal Bima Yojana authorities must assess damage without delay. We have emerged from bigger monsoon failures.

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