Heavy rain forecast for most of North India next week

The monsoon is set to break free from a hiatus and run through Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar during the next two days, besides checking into East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh.

The rains have been delayed over Madhya Pradesh and parts of Central India for almost a week due to reverses suffered in the Bay of Bengal when two rain-making low-pressure areas strayed and landed over Bangaldesh in quick succession.

The Bay is now bracing for another low-pressure area, which many models say would become a depression, and trot all the way to North-West India during the last week of the month (June 25 onwards), dumping heavy rain in the process.

The India Met Department (IMD) said on Wednesday that a preliminary circulation has formed over North Coastal Odisha. The expectation is that it would anchor one end of the trough that extends into North-West India, and set up the ‘low’.

Moisture-laden easterly winds from the Bay would blow into this trough and trigger heavy to very heavy rain over Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Konkan-Mumbai during June 27 to July 3, says the US Centre for Climate Prediction.

South India is expected to witness normal rainfall during this period, while it would be below normal for Coastal Karnataka and Kerala, says this outlook.

Meanwhile, the IMD pointed to the possibility of storm-like conditions developing over Central India by July 1 when the easterlies fanned by the ‘low’ from the Bay interact with monsoon westerlies from the Arabian Sea, setting off heavy rainfall.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is largely in agreement except that it surmises the prospective monsoon depression would still be located over Coastal Odisha by July 1.

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