There are just 4-5 days for the 2017 southwest monsoon to set over the Kerala coast, but the government does not appear to be in any hurry or serious about its traditional obligation towards the farm sector at this time of the year.

The Agriculture Ministry’s apathy means the agri market faces huge uncertainty which can fan speculative interests.

As of May 24, the Ministry of Agriculture has not announced the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for various kharif crops, the important ones being rice, maize, tur/arhar, groundnut, soybean and cotton.

MSP ought to be announced at least four weeks before the rains so that, in theory, the farmer can decide what to grow and source inputs in time.

In practice, however, growers are hardly influenced by MSP as many do not even get to know the support price. Notwithstanding that, an inordinate delay on the part of the government to do even this basic routine exercise is a reflection on its commitment to the farm sector. It is unclear what’s holding the decision back.

Policy paralysis

The production target for 2017-18 for various kharif crops is not available as yet, nor is an action plan for the season, including a contingency plan, if any, to meet an eventuality. The market participants do not know the level of production planned. The Minister of Agriculture recently made a bland statement that the country could harvest record crops if the southwest monsoon performed well.

At the same time, the Minister has written to all States cautioning against possible monsoon aberrations and asking them to be ready with contingency plans to meet any weather risk. There seem to be more to it than meets the eye.

In the case of oilseeds (soybean and groundnut) and pulses (mainly tur/arhar or pigeon pea), the risk of a decline in production from 2016 levels is real. Growers have suffered low prices as a result of lack of adequate support from the government over the last several months.

Their anger may find expression in what and how much they plant. Many may move away from oilseeds and pulses to more remunerative crops. The country will pay a heavy price for the omissions and commissions of policymakers.

There is a risk that kharif 2017 may not be able to sustain the levels of harvest seen in 2016.

Food inflation may rear its head and import dependence will worsen. Whether the occupants of Krishi Bhawan are cognisant of these risks is not known. The policy paralysis and lack of attention is palpable.

The writer is a global agribusiness and commodities market specialist. Views are personal

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