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The South-West monsoon has advanced into more parts of the Bay of Bengal even as heavy piloting showers continued to lash Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
An India Meteorological Department outlook said that conditions are favourable for the onset of the monsoon over the Kerala coast during the next three to four days.
Weekly distribution The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assesses that this could happen on June 7 or 8.
An extended range weather forecast, as per the National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin, said the main rainfall belt will sit over extreme South India and parts of North-East India from June 3 to 9.
The bulletin is issued jointly by the India Meteorological Department, Indian Council of Agriculture Research, and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture.
The week that follows (June 10 to 16) will witness an increase in rainfall over the North-eastern States and parts of eastern states and a northward extension of the rain belt along the West Coast.
This would mean that there will be an improvement in rainfall in the second fortnight of June compared to the first.
Cyclonic circulation Meanwhile, the European Centre said that a cyclonic circulation over the West-central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh and Odisha appears to be getting an upper hand over a counterpart located over Lakshadweep.
This would help the former commandeer some of the monsoon flows to the East Coast and also bring some rain into Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema from June 3-9.
According to the European Centre, normal or above-normal rainfall is likely during the next fortnight (June 3 to 16) over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Madhya Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu in the South.
A similar forecast has been made for Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura in the East and the North-East.
West coast rain The rains may progress along the West Coast to Konkan and Goa, Interior Karnataka, Odisha, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh from June 10 to 16.
Though there has been a delay in the onset of the monsoon over Kerala and Karnataka, bountiful pre-monsoon showers during the previous week have ensured ample soil moisture, facilitating preparations for the sowing of kharif crops.
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