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Conditions are getting right for the commencement of North-East monsoon rain over the South over the next four to five days, an India Met Department update said on Friday.
All available indications suggest the season will set in with a flourish with storms developing over both the South-West Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea.
Bountiful season The Met has already forecast a bountiful season this year which will be a godsend for parts of the South Peninsula scalded by near-drought conditions during the predecessor South-West monsoon.
The South Peninsula was left with a deficit of 15 per cent, most of the Met subdivisions managed to get into ‘normal’ thanks to a late surge in rains.
The North-East monsoon is crucial for five subdivisions of South India, namely Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka.
They receive about 30 per cent of their annual rainfall during the North-East monsoon season (October to December).
Tamil Nadu alone receives about 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during this season.
Easterly wave The Met said that an easterly wave will pilot the monsoon, bringing rainfall over Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern peninsula from Tuesday onwards.
Easterly waves are elongated low-pressure areas moving in from the direction of South China Sea, carry their rain-heads upfront, and dump it over Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
These waves are also known to embed building storms within, one of which is expected to develop over Southwest Bay of Bengal (off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu) early next week.
It can evolve into a deep depression/cyclone by the time it hits the Tamil Nadu coast, if early projections are anything to go by.
After hitting the coast, the weakened storm is forecast to slide along the rest of the East Coast, toying with the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal.
At the moment, both peninsular seas are witnessing churn; the Sri Lanka coast apart, a preparatory cyclonic circulation has taken a perch over Lakshadweep (Southeast Arabian Sea) as well.
Evolving storms Here too, the system is likely to evolve into a storm, break into two, with a leading edge careening into the outer (South-West) Arabian Sea towards Gulf of Eden/Yemen.
The remainder may move towards the Karnataka coast and clamber along north the West Coast towards Konkan-Mumbai, pushing some rain into West Maharashtra and Central India.
By this time, its counterpart over the Tamil Nadu coast would have reached Gangetic West Bengal, with a likely trough linking the two on both sides of the peninsula.
This trough will bring rain to West, Central and East-Central India.
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