South-West monsoon may exit entire country in next two days

Withdrawal process of the South-West monsoon has made dramatic progress through the weekend and now leaves only the South Peninsula to be covered.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday that the monsoon would exit the entire mainland over the next two days.

This would likely set the stage for the onset of the North-East monsoon (retreating monsoon or monsoon in reverse) during the ongoing third week of October.

Operational forecast for the October-December rainfall over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka is most likely to be normal.

The IMD has forecast the possibility of formation of a rain-setting low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal that could cause the winds to change direction and help with the monsoon transition.

The ‘low’ would be the legacy of the raging South China Sea typhoon Sarika that is barrelling towards the Hainan coast off China and headed towards a landfall over Vietnam.

A ‘pulse’ sent in by Sarika is seen aiding the formation of the ‘low’ over Central Bay of Bengal; but model forecasts say that it is set to move back towards Myanmar after the typhoon weakens.

On Monday, a preparatory cyclonic circulation has already left Indochina and was located off the Arakan coast of Myanmar.

Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US Climate Prediction Centre are unanimous in their outlook of a north-northeast movement of the ‘low’ (away from India).

Sarika is being followed close on her heels by another typhoon Haima located east of the Philippines on Monday.

Haima too is tracking more or less the path of Sarika and is forecast to hit the south-east coast of China in due course. It would help consolidate the easterly/north-easterly flows across the Bay.

The 24 hours ending Monday morning saw rainfall, at times heavy, being recorded at a few places over Kerala and Lakshadweep and at one or two places over Tamil Nadu.

The chief amounts of rainfall recorded (in) are Pechiparai (Kanyakumari district) -3 in Tamil Nadu and Punalur (Kollam) -11; Kurudamannil -5; Chengannur (Alappuzha) and Konni (Pathanamthitta district) - 2 each.

IMD forecasts available for the next couple of days suggested the possibility of heavy rain over Andaman and Nicobar Islands as the ‘low’ in Bay starts dictating weather in the region. Extended forecasts from October 22 said that rain may break out over many parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well at a few places of extreme South India.

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