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India is no longer the top supplier of cashew kernels to the world market and that position has been taken over by Vietnam for kernels and West Africa for Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN).
On the demand side, the US and EU continue to be the major buyers but they have been overtaken by Asia, which has, of late, become the largest consuming region with India taking the lead in consumption.
Meanwhile, the world cashew kernel market has been maintaining a steady trend and that is likely to continue as there is not much chance of any big price movement unless something dramatic happens on the supply side.
This stability in a period when there have been significant changes in prices of other nuts is attributed to reasonable steady growth in global usage, Pankaj N Sampat, a Mumbai-based dealer told BusinessLine.
Current price range for W240 is $3.75-3.90, W320 $3.50-3.65, W450 $3.40-3.50, SW320 $3.35-3.45, SW360 $3.25-3.35, Splits $3.2-3.35 and Pieces $3-3.15, all per lb (fob).
Meanwhile, Indian cashew exports during the first nine months of the current fiscal have shown a decline of 19.5 per cent from that of April- December 2014-15, according to Cashew Export Promotion Council of India.
Exports dip Total shipments in April-December 2015 stood at 72,284 tonnes valued at ₹3,677.23 crore against 89,834 tonnes valued at ₹4,048.76 crore in the same period last year. The average unit value was at ₹508.72/kg during the current fiscal whereas it stood at ₹450.69 last year.
At the same time imports of raw cashew nuts (RCN) showed an increase of 36,674 tonnes over the imports in the same period last year.During 2015, price of RCN was low in February/March before beginning of the Northern Crop, which accounts for over 75 per cent of world production. They moved in April/May when trading volume was at peak and edged down in July/August.
Prices moved up again in September-November when the Southern crop was being traded and eased a bit in last two weeks.
Price outlook On an average, Pankaj said, RCN prices in 2015 were about 25 per cent higher than that of 2014 but there was almost no change in kernel prices.
This is putting pressure on processor margins. Looking at current situation, the trade is of the opinion that some volatility in prices is likely to prevail in the first quarter.
If kernel demand in January/February is not very strong and if 2016 crops are very good, it is possible that RCN prices could dip a little in March/May, he added.
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