A prevailing storm in the Arabian Sea may be the most predominant monsoon feature now, but rains may lash the mainland in right earnest from next week.

India Met Department has classified the storm as a well-marked low-pressure area but the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has given it a ‘numbered cyclone’ status.

It calls the system ‘02A,’ the penultimate procedure step before it gives a ‘name’ to it (Nanauk, contributed by Myanmar as per regional naming protocol for cyclones).

Back to life

The storm is now well on its west-northwest course towards Oman, but is forecast to lose some steam before approaching for landfall.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the monsoon would roar back to life from Monday onwards.

It says back-up flows from the southern hemisphere are just waiting for the would-be cyclone in the Arabian Sea to spend itself out before rushing towards India’s west coast.

Revival signs

Signs of monsoon revival will be evident even as the remnant of the cyclone would be wallowing in the Oman waters, according to this outlook.

The flows will build up to peak strength towards the middle of the next week and might remain as such through the weekend.

The pattern would be such that the flows would set up a full-fledged monsoon onset conditions for a second time on the west coast.

The flows will spread across entire peninsula, and grow along the east coast with the Bay of Bengal also getting into a song.

Major beneficiaries

Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Seemandhra, and southern parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and the North-East are all seen gaining from this run of the monsoon.

A similar scenario is being forecast by the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services.

It sees enhanced rain activity over east India and North-East India with a flare-up over Gangetic West Bengal.

But monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal are not seen making much headway into the North and North-West during this period.

(This article was published on June 10, 2014)
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