Rain deficit has gone up to 43 per cent for the country as a whole as on July 2 (Wednesday) leaving more than 85 per cent of the land in either ‘deficient’ or ‘scanty’ category.

Deficient category indicates a rain shortfall of 20-59 per cent and scanty, 60-99 per cent.

The week ending Wednesday saw a deficit of as high as 53 per cent.

Tamil Nadu provided an honourable exception by delivering a big surprise on the upside while recording excess rainfall of over 200 per cent for the week.

Honourable exception

As for the rest of the country, it is now left for July to salvage the position, but forecasts indicate no major gains any time soon.

Firstly, the monsoon has to contend with a new tropical storm Neoguri in north-west Pacific. It will cause the rains to be confined to East India and the West Coast during the week beginning Friday.

Projected deficits

Almost similar scenario would play out during the week that follows, but the weakening of Neoguri may bring some rain into Central and adjoining peninsular India as well as North-West India.

The week starting on Friday (July 4) may see rain deficit persisting in the following regions: Gujarat, east Rajasthan, west and south Madhya Pradesh, north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

Projected deficit for following week (starting July 10) would be in: Gujarat; west Madhya Pradesh; Gangetic West Bengal; entire Karnataka; and most of Tamil Nadu.

But east Madhya Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha are expected to return surplus rainfall as per the US agency projections.

Not covered yet

As on Friday, the regions where the monsoon has not covered were west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south-west Uttar Pradesh; east, central, and west Rajasthan; and Gujarat, except the southern border.

The northern limit of monsoon did not move from the previous day’s alignment across Veraval, Surat, Nasik, Wasim, Damoh, Lucknow, Aligarh and Bikaner. India Met Department said conditions were favourable for its advance into rest of Uttar Pradesh and some more parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during next three days.

The rain-piloting low-pressure area was located to over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand.

It is expected to north-westwards (towards Bihar and Uttar Pradesh) by Saturday.

(This article was published on July 4, 2014)
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