Will the BJP retain its 2014 tempo in UP?

As India’s most populous State, Uttar Pradesh, prepares to go to the polls in seven phases with the first phase beginning February 11, the stand-off between Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has queered the pitch and dimmed the chances of a non-BJP government coming to power in the State, which has 403 Assembly constituencies.

One of the bitterest family feuds that Indian politics has ever seen has been in the SP: things were on the boil soon after Akhilesh took over as chief minister after engineering a massive victory in the 2012 Assembly elections.

But along with father Mulayam, uncle Shivpal Yadav and the party’s Muslim and often comical face, Azam Khan, interfering all the time, there have been many flashpoints in the last four years.

When in 2012 he became the youngest chief minister of the State at 38, Akhilesh had raised hopes that finally one of India’s most backward States would see some development and progress.

But UP, embroiled perhaps much more than any other Indian State in caste, class and communal politics, is an extremely difficult State to rule. And Akhilesh’s journey in governing the State has been a roller-coaster ride.

In 2014, along with the Congress and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, the SP got mud on its face when under the leadership of Amit Shah, the BJP scored a spectacular win. So complete was the rout of the non-BJP parties that the Congress, which, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, had managed to get 21 seats in the 2009 general elections, was able to get only two seats — its two pocket boroughs of Rae Bareilly and Amethi — which allowed Sonia Gandhi and Rahul to at least enter the Lok Sabha, where the Congress was reduced to a pathetic 44 seats.

As though three elders — Mulayam, Shivpal and Azam Khan — messing with his head, and with State affairs, was not enough, since last May, Akhilesh’s cup of woe has overflowed, with Mulayam renominating to the Rajya Sabha Amar Singh, who had been expelled for six years from the SP. SP’s history shows that Amar Singh is bad news. But for now Amar Singh has been packed off to London, indicating some patch-up is in the offing between father and son.

Another big contender in UP is the BSP, which drew a blank in the Lok Sabha polls and hopes to do much better this February, but it has been rocked in recent times by a few high-profile exits. Despite that, a combative Mayawati has devised a multipronged strategy to attack both the BJP and the SP during her campaigns. The BJP is attacked for demonetisation which has put the common man under a lot of suffering and killed thousands of jobs in the unorganised sector; the SP for its shoddy governance, breakdown in rule of law, and of course the family feud.

But even though it is advantage for a resurgent BJP that goes to the UP polls, its greatest drawback is that it doesn’t have a charismatic face or a strong leader in the State for the chief minister’s post. Hence the Opposition, also badly hit by demonetisation as electoral expenses are mostly done in cash and largely not accounted for, is in a state of disarray.

The SP and Congress are likely to come together but the alliance deal is on hold till the Mulayam-Akhilesh feud is resolved. On its own, the Congress has little chance of getting even a respectable number of seats as can be seen from opinion polls.

As of now, the predictions are mixed. The first Axis- India Today poll predicted that the BJP would emerge the single largest party, getting between 170 and 183 seats, followed by the BSP (115-124) and the SP (94-103), but its latest poll has revised these numbers. It now gives the BJP 206-216 seats, which would enable it to form a government on its own; both the SP and BSP’s tally is reduced to 92-97 and 79-85 seats respectively, putting the BSP in the third place. The Congress position remains pathetic at a paltry 5-9 seats, a shameful position for a national party.

But the ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll predicts the SP will emerge the single largest party with 141-151 seats, puts BJP in second position with 129-134 votes and the BSP third with 93-103 seats.

Perhaps the election, a three if not four-cornered contest, might just be too close to call. And whether the BJP admits it or not, the outcome of the UP polls will partially be a referendum on how the Prime Minister’s demonetisation move has gone down with the masses in a Hindi heartland State like UP.

As for the Congress, it looks as though its vanavas is not yet over and unless the party throws up better leadership, it might remain that way for some time to come.

The way UP’s Muslims vote will also be interesting to watch; UP’s outcome will hold signals for the 2019 general elections.

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