Uncommon victory

It would be unfair to read the remarkable outcome of the Delhi Assembly poll as a mere rejection of Narendra Modi’s brand of development, as some of the opposition parties — with the notable exception of the Aam Aadmi Party itself — have been quick to claim. And while there was a huge consolidation of the Opposition vote, the AAP’s astounding victory was much more than a mere result of this. The numbers tell their tale. The AAP — virtually written off by many analysts nine months ago after the BJP’s resounding win in the parliamentary election — won 67 out of 70 seats, with a staggering 54.3 per cent share of the popular vote. The BJP, which won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi nine months ago, had actually ‘won’ 57 of the 70 Assembly segments, with 46.4 per cent of the popular vote. This time around, its vote share has slid to 32.2 per cent. This may appear as a sharp fall, but when compared to the 2013 Assembly poll result (when BJP won 32 seats), its vote share has declined by just around 1 percentage point. Apart from illustrating the pitfalls of our first-past-the-post system, what the popular vote indicates is that while the BJP may have retained its core base, the AAP has managed to wrest support across all caste, community, economic and gender divides.

This overwhelming faith reposed on the AAP is likely to be its greatest challenge going forward. While some of its election promises, such as passing the Delhi Jan Lokpal Bill or the Swaraj Act, may be easy to keep, given its legislative dominance, others, such as halving the electricity bills of consumers, giving every household 700 litres of water free every day, and providing free wi-fi throughout Delhi, raise questions about its ability — or even intent — to keep Delhi’s finances in order. They evoke disturbing memories of past attempts at state-led welfarism, most of which failed to achieve their stated objectives while squandering scarce resources.

How, then, should we read these results? Yes, the BJP made tactical blunders — paratrooping Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate at the last minute and placing an exaggerated faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s larger-than-life image. These detracted from local issues such as water, power, accessible healthcare and education, and women’s safety, which the AAP focussed upon. But it is not the specific issues which the AAP raised that are important as much as the pain points that it managed to touch. Whether it is access to education or better healthcare facilities or even the creation of a unified transit authority to tackle Delhi’s transportation woes, the AAP’s election manifesto points to the thinness of our development, and the sharp divide between those who are already enjoying the benefits of growth and those who aspire to them. This is the real meaning of the mandate that our political class needs to take on board.

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