Implications of skewed sex ratio in India

The recently released final Census data for 2011 reveal two interesting facts relating to women in India, one good and the other mixed.

The good news is that the rate of increase in literacy rate of females during 2001 to 2011, at 10.9 per cent, was nearly twice the 5.6 per cent in the case of males. There is substantial research showing gender equality, particularly in education and employment, to be contributing to economic growth. Therefore, it can be assumed that higher female literacy rates in India would eventually lead to their better employability and higher professional independence, thereby helping the cause of growth.

The mixed news has been that though the population growth rate in respect of males was lower at 17.1 per cent, when compared with 18.3 per cent for females — implying some correction in the overall sex ratio — the child sex ratio (for the age group from zero to six years) deteriorated over the decade, from 927 to 919 females for every 1000 males.

The persistence of an adverse sex ratio — seen particularly in the children’s age group — is mainly because of a high preference in Indian society for sons. Until that preference is addressed, the sex ratio would be difficult to change, despite concerted measures on the part of the Government.

The reasons for high sex ratio (more males than females) have been examined empirically by many researchers. Lena Edlund, an economist at Columbia University, has shown that in addition to traditional factors, social mobility could also be a driving force behind the increasing sex ratio in India.

Sex ratio, crime and growth

A high sex ratio can have many implications, including, for example, on crime. Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera, in a 2000 study, have concluded that murder rates in India are correlated with the female-male ratio; districts with higher proportion of females actually have lower murder rates.

The establishment of direct causal link from high sex ratio to crime is, of course, difficult, more so in transitional economies, where so many other factors, too, play a role. For instance, most of India, especially the northern states, has had a history of high sex ratio for centuries. However, the adverse sex ratio need not necessarily imply ‘bare-branches’, as men tend to marry women across cohorts, from generally much young to even slightly older in age.

Moreover, the adverse relationship between crime and sex ratio in India has also been buffered by the general increase in population, higher emigration of educated and skilled men to other countries, and sourcing of women from other countries/regions.

Thus, India could offer a case that differs from the general trend. To illustrate, in a 2010 National Bureau of Economic Research paper, Qingyuan Du and Shang-Jin Wei have argued that high sex ratios lead to higher savings rate, current account surplus and lower exchange rates. The hypothesis here is that men raise their savings rate to improve their relative standing in the marriage market.

In another paper, Wei and Xiaobo Zhang have suggested that high sex ratios have actually stimulated economic growth in China by inducing more entrepreneurship and hard work. But this is not so in India, where despite a persistently high sex ratio, the savings rate continues to be low, the current account in the balance of payments is in huge deficit, and the rupee has not particularly held its own.

At the same time, there is robust research to show that high sex ratio increases female bargaining power in the marriage market, shifting resources and family structures in ways that favour women. Similarly, men who face a more competitive marriage market need to be more efficient and invest in characteristics attractive to potential wives.

But in sharp contrast, Lena has pointed to scarce women offering larger dowries to attract the most suitable men in marriage. The Government should obviously be wary of this trend.

Policy correctives

To correct the persistence in adverse sex ratio, the need is to change the mindset and attitudes of people, especially young adults. The Government should seize this opportunity and intervene to popularise widow remarriages and reduce the menace of dowry, which can be done through the use of mass media campaigns and active involvement of social and religious institutions.

To incentivise widow remarriages and dowry-less marriages, the Government could even consider schemes like offering honey-moon packages and concessional houses for such couples. To discourage female infanticide, the Government could consider a ‘mothering allowance” to the mother for first six years after the birth of a girl child.

India could also consider incentives like introducing gender-based quotas in colleges and work places. Also, couples having only daughters could be eligible for a higher than the normal universal old age pension, and even starting earlier from the age of 55 years These, hopefully, can then lead to a more balanced child sex ratio by the time of the next 2021 Census.

(The author is RBI Chair Professor of Economics at IIM Bangalore. The views are personal.)

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