A crop of discontent

As one travels to villages in western Uttar Pradesh and across the industrial town of Moradabad, it is common to come across angry people criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his “thoughtless’’ move of note-bandi (the term used in the Hindi heartland for demonetisation). With most of the cash sucked out of the State’s economy, and the banks — especially the rural ones — unable to meet demand for new notes, livelihood of hundreds of people has come to a grinding halt.

Farmers, who have been worst hit with prices of their produce crashing to below-sustenance levels, are seething the most.

“We had voted Modi to power and made him our Prime Minister with a lot of hope. But see how he has let us down. Farmers are totally ruined because of note-bandi ,and our vegetables are being fed to the animals. How can we vote for him again,” says a distressed Kamal Singh who grows potatoes and cabbages in a village in Hapur. Singh’s earnings have dwindled as lack of cash post-demonetisation has sent vegetable prices plunging at the local mandi .

With incomes falling, many are now prioritising expenses. “I have three children who go to school. I have no cash to pay their fees. They come back home daily and say that they are being scolded at school for the delay in fee payment. It is humiliating,” says Bhajan Lal, another farmer in Hapur.

Bhajan Lal has sold one of his two buffaloes to keep his household running. “If the government does this to us for no fault of ours, who else do we turn to? ” he asks.

Farmers are also distressed that demonetisation has been announced in the wedding season. After a gap of several months, the auspicious wedding period started in mid-November in UP villages, but not many weddings are taking place.

Sant Veer Singh, another vegetable farmer in a village in Hapur, had fixed his daughter’s marriage for February 1, 2017. But he is no longer sure of conducting the wedding. “If you were in a situation where your earnings have disappeared and you can not fully access your bank account, what would you do?” Singh asks in frustration when asked how he planned to tackle the situation.

Inability to access cash in banks has led to possibly violent situations. Mohram Singh, a Constable at the Chajlet Police Station in Moradabad district was recently called by the manager of the Prathama Bank in Bibipur village. Customers had created a fuss after the bank gave just ₹500 to each account holder who had lined up for cash. “As cash had come to the branch after several days, the women were demanding ₹1,000 each, and were refusing to allow the bank to conduct business till their demand was met. The bank had to ultimately close for the day,” he said.

The anger and discontent rising from the acute cash-crunch that has followed the Government’s demonetisation drive would have a bearing on the State’s assembly elections due later this year.

The BJP, which has been in political hibernation in UP since 2002, was favourite to form the government this year. But not any more. “Regional parties in Uttar Pradesh will be able to benefit from demonetisation if they are able to build a political critique on it,” said Manisha Priyam, political analyst and a doctorate from London School of Economics.

“Whether demonetisation becomes the central theme of elections or not depends on the ability of opposition parties to develop the political narrative,” she adds.

But a weakened opposition, especially after the the internal bickering within the Samajwadi Party (SP), might help BJP recover some of the lost ground.

Moreover, the cash crunch has hit all the political parties and their campaign plans. “Demonetisation has definitely affected election funding. At instances where ₹1,000 used to be exchanged for a vote, a ₹2,000 note is being distributed now,” said Lenin Raghuvanshi, an independent political analyst.

“The cash crunch has impacted the BSP and the SP, as most of their funding was routed through government contractors dealing in the cash economy. The BJP seems better placed than its competitors in this scenario as they have their funding centrally managed,” added Raghuvanshi.

On the ground, Modi’s charisma still has takers. Despite the wide-spread distress caused by demonetisation, there are many who continue to back Modi laying the blame on other quarters including other BJP members. “Whatever hardships I may have to face, I will keep supporting Modi as I believe in him. All this (the distress) is anyway not his creation. It is caused by others close to him in the party,” says Rana Singh from Nazar Pur village.

There are others who blame banks for the faulty implementation of the demonetisation drive. “Modi wants the best for the country and is trying to end corruption, but what can he do alone?” asks Shivendra Singh, a sugarcane farmer in Moradabad. It is the banks that are corrupt and are siphoning off new notes that is causing the currency shortage, he adds.

Jagvir Singh, another farmer from Shivendra Singh’s village, puts the blame for farm distress on the ruling Samajwadi Party and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav.

“There are many sugarcane farmers who have not received payments from mills even for the past season, and the CM does nothing about it. Instead of helping us he has allowed mills not to pay interest on the pending payments,” Jagvir Singh says.

Some try to take a balanced view blaming both the Centre and the State government for the continuing crisis. “While it is the Centre that has caused the crisis by withdrawing notes without enough preparations, the State CM is not doing his bit in instructing banks to release money in rural areas. The poor farmer is getting caught in political rivalries,” says Mahendra Singh, the head of five villages in Moradabad district.

The Muslim vote, which traditionally goes against the BJP, might again play a crucial role. “ Note-bandi is not just hurting the Muslims, it is harming the Hindus equally. We have all lost our jobs,” says Mohammad Shameem, a labourer in a brass-ware factory in Moradabad’s Lal Masjid area.

Mohammad Nadeem, a unit owner in the same area, says that the demonetisation drive has served a body-blow to his business that he will find difficult to emerge from.

“Business is very sensitive to change. The slightest disruption could push one into a situation that one could take several years to emerge from. The destruction caused by demonetisation is bound to make the Centre very unpopular amongst those who are losing their business for no fault of theirs,” Nadeem says. The brass-ware industry workers, however, hesitate to reveal whether they would vote for the SP, BSP or some other party in the forthcoming elections. “Let us wait and see,” says Shameem.

Ram Pal Singh, a farmer in Hapur village says BJP may still have some chance of winning in UP only if it decides to waive off loans of farmers. “The farmers are suffering a lot due to the effects of demonetisation. If Modi wants to show them that he cares, he has to waive off loans.”

Kirpal Singh, another farmer from Hapur, says that at least the loans of farmers who committed suicide should be waived. “To lose a family member is a big tragedy. On top of that if the other members have to carry the burden of farm debt, the situation could become unbearable. PM Modi has to waive off the loans of at least the families that have lost a member,” Kirpal Singh said. Direct payments into the Jan Dhan accounts of millions of poor could also fetch the BJP some points.

“The farmers have been waiting patiently without any agitation despite their crops getting ruined as they want to demonstrate their anger by voting against the BJP. It is very important that the Modi government gives out some doles to the poor if the BJP wants to have some chances of winning the Assembly elections,” adds Ram Pal Singh.

With additional inputs from Twesh Mishra

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