“The voter is maturing”: Prannoy Roy and Dorab R Sopariwala on decoding Indian elections

At a time when 24x7 news channels are running out of breath discussing the import of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections , psephologist Prannoy Roy harks back to former US President Barack Obama’s succinct words. “This could be the most important election of our lifetime,” Obama had said about the 2018 midterm elections in the US. Even though that is said about every election, every time, Roy adds.

Prannoy Roy

The co-founder of the media network NDTV, Roy (69) has been travelling through South India, conducting interviews and reading the prevailing mood among voters. “It’s just wonderful to be in the South,” he says. “If you want to detox, go to the South. The voters are more engaged, there is no tension even if they are voting differently from each other. Currently, democracy is in a much healthier condition in the southern states.”

Roy and Dorab R Sopariwala, who is also an editorial advisor with NDTV, recently released their book The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections , published by Penguin Random House India. Based on the duo’s considerable experience as psephologists, The Verdict examines seven decades of the Indian electoral landscape and their “confounding complexity”. BL ink spoke to the authors about the book in the context of the ongoing elections.

Dorab R Sopariwala

The evolving voter

The Verdict opens with the chapter ‘The End of Anti-Incumbency’, heralding a shift in the relationship between the voter and the politician. Arguing that “it is the voter, not the politician, who is at the core of our democracy”, the authors expand on the shifts in voter behaviour that have led to “a distinct maturing of our democracy”.

Sopariwala likens the voter-politician relationship in the post-Independence years to that of a master and slave, with the politician as master. “This relationship has (now) inverted,” he says.

“Voters are aware of the power of their vote. If someone they had voted into power is seeking to return to Delhi for another term, it is only the voter who can send them there.”

Roy seconds this: “In the first 25 years— 1952-77 — India saw a pro-incumbency phase wherein governments were routinely voted back into power.” In the book, the authors describe this phase as being “underwritten by high levels of trust and confidence in politicians and incumbent ruling governments”.

The “optimistic voter” gives way to the “angry voter” in the second phase (1977-2002). “The Anti-Incumbency Era” was marked by a breakdown of trust between the voter and the politician. “The frequency with which any government was voted back to power dropped dramatically in this period, from over 80 per cent to only 29 per cent,” the authors write.

The third phase, which includes the ongoing elections, falls in “The Fifty-Fifty Era”, marked by the “wiser voter”, for whom development matter more than oratory. “The voter is maturing and has begun to distinguish between politicians who deliver their promises and those who do not,” says Roy. “Politicians have to work hard and be in touch with their constituency if they want to be voted back.”

The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections; Prannoy Roy and Dorab R Sopariwala; Penguin; Non-fiction; ₹599

Whither women?

By far, the most riveting chapter in the book is about the stature of women in the electoral landscape. In 2017-18, women’s turnout in state Assembly elections outstripped that of men for the first time in history.

Roy says, “The upcoming elections will probably be the first Lok Sabha election where women overtake men in turnout. The participation of rural women, especially, is higher than that of urban women as well as urban and rural men.”

At the same time, there is serious cause for concern. The authors find that as many as 21 million women of voting age are not on the electoral rolls. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 23.4 million women voters were missing. Uttar Pradesh fares the worst with 85,000 women voters, on an average, deprived of the right to vote in every constituency. The southern states fare better in this respect. Even in the Capital, 16.9 per cent of eligible women are missing from the rolls.

Sopariwala blames administrative failure and social taboos for the phenomenon of missing women voters. “Even though the Election Commission is a Central body, people who do the election work are borrowed from state administrations. Historically, the local administration tends to be weaker in the northern states. There are lower levels of literacy and economic development, so the access to more remote villages will be difficult,” he says. “Then there are social customs. Someone may not want their wives or daughters to be photographed. But I think it is fair to say that it is the most disadvantaged sections of society who are left out of the electoral rolls.”

The absence of women has a direct impact on the election, says Roy, discussing how methods to suppress or manipulate voter turnout are often used to prevent voters from participating in the elections. Violence on election day has been known to prevent women from voting.

Recounting how many of the rural women he had met told him their vote was cast independent of what their husband and relatives wanted, Roy says, “The keen participation of rural women in the elections is a heart-warming sight. That’s the story of this election. ”

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