An Olympic Games without Russia might have been unthinkable a month ago. But it appeared a serious possibility after the startling doping allegations, and until the International Olympic Committee (IOC) decision last Sunday to retain one of the most powerful sports powers in the Rio Games.

A division within the Olympic movement was feared when the IOC took up the World Anti-Doping Agency’s (WADA) recommendation to bar Russia for its “state-sponsored” doping programme which undermined the principles of “clean sport”. Instead of a “strong message” to protect “clean athletes”, the IOC took the easier option and left the task of determining the ‘eligibility’ of Russian athletes to the respective international federations.

Russia must have heaved a huge sigh of relief. In contrast, several Olympic legends, national anti-doping organisations, independent organisations and commentators were disappointed at the IOC’s lack of “leadership”. Rio couldn’t have been happier though. A devalued Games, like Moscow in 1980 and Los Angeles in 1984, would not have done any good to a host already struggling to put together the biggest spectacle in the world. For sheer edge-of-the-seat drama and excitement, for a rush of adrenalin, for joys and sorrows of individuals and nations, nothing beats the Games.

Despite the IOC all-clear, albeit with conditions attached, athletics in Rio will be devalued to some extent. The International Association of Athletics Federations, which governs track and field athletics, had earlier suspended the Russian federation and also barred its athletes. Sixty-eight of them approached the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), in Lausanne (Switzerland), the highest appeals body for sports disputes, but failed to get the ban overturned.

It’s seven years since Rio received, with unprecedented celebrations, the news of its selection as the 2016 Olympics venue. Today, the city is battling challenges to ready itself for the August 5 opening. There is nothing new in an Olympic host running against the clock. Invariably they all do... unless, that is, you are the Chinese. Beijing was ready a year ahead of schedule.

But Rio’s problems have poured in from everywhere. Over the past several months, it has struggled with rising costs, inflation, delayed projects, Zika virus, environmental issues, and security concerns. Uncertainty over the Russian participation added to the worries. In the last minute, organisers are left to tackle the revised Russian entries in different sports.

The Brazilian economy, which boomed a year after Rio became the host, is now heading downward. President Dilma Rousseff is facing impeachment and had to stand down, leading to political uncertainty. Law and order in Rio has also caused anxiety to the international community. The recent terror attacks in France and Germany only underscored the need to boost security arrangements.

The Zika virus has already robbed golf of its top four players, all of them pulling out in recent weeks, not wanting to risk their family’s health. There is mounting concern regarding the environmental hazards caused by the polluted, debris-filled Guanabara Bay on the eastern side of Rio. The bay will host the sailing competition, apart from some swimming and triathlon events. Contestants who participated in the test events were apprehensive about the quality of water and the stench from the bay area. Recent studies have reportedly shown an abundance of coliform bacteria in the waters. Some test events contestants had taken ill.

A few unfinished projects, especially on the Metro line, may hinder smooth movement during the course of the Games, reports have said. The resource crunch that threatened to derail security, transport and infrastructure plans — at one stage prompting the Rio Governor to declare a state of “financial emergency” in June — has constrained Brazil’s efforts to welcome the 10,500-odd athletes and officials and an estimated 500,000 tourists. Emergency funds have been allotted by the Brazilian government, but reports from Rio suggest that everything may not be ready in time.

It has long been established that budgeted costs for hosting the Olympics do escalate over a period, most of the time alarmingly. A study by a team from Oxford University’s business school suggests the Rio Games would be overrun by $1.6 billion.

Despite all the negativism, athletes from around the world are looking forward to what, for them, could be the most “memorable games”. The Olympics is about the kind of spectacle and contests that no other event can dream of. It offers them the stage to perform in front of thousands of spectators and billions of viewers around the world. An estimated 3.6 billion watched the London Olympics. The figures are bound to go up.

For an athlete, nothing beats the ecstasy of being an Olympic champion. American swimmer Michael Phelps has lived that unforgettable moment no less than 11 times (individual gold) in the past three Olympics. He has 22 medals in all. At 31, and into his fifth Olympics, he continues to be hungry.

The Olympic Games is also the perfect stage to trumpet nationalism. In a world riven by wars and ethnic conflicts, and devastated by terror attacks, the Games becomes an arena for camaraderie and compassion. However, make no mistake: the Pierre de Coubertin philosophy — “the most important thing is not winning, but taking part…” — has long been forgotten. Only “winning” matters. ‘Winning at all costs’ is the running theme, as the ‘State-sponsored Russian doping programme’ exposed in two reports to the WADA, has established. It is shocking that a country with such a rich tradition in Olympic sport has stooped so low to “protect” doped athletes. The Russians, though, have stated that there is no such state support and President Vladimir Putin also asserted that the country does not tolerate doping in sports.

Except in London, where it finished fourth, Russia has finished in the top three at the last five editions of the Olympics. Barring Beijing (2008), where China topped, the US has finished at the top often in the last few games. The former USSR had headed the medal charts in Seoul (1988) with 132 medals, including 55 golds to the US’s 102 and 37 golds. In Barcelona (1992), the Unified Team comprising 12 former Soviet Republics topped with 112 medals including 45 golds to the US’s 108 and 37. The former Soviet Republics have competed as separate countries in the Olympics since 1996.

The American supremacy is unlikely to be eroded in Rio. Russia’s absence in athletics may not matter much to the US, though it may help other countries. Russia’s standards in athletics have slipped considerably in the past couple of years, thanks to the weeding out of dope offenders. Yet it has remained one of the leading powers in the sport.

Fans will miss the glamorous Russian pole-vaulting star and world record holder Yelena Isinbayeva, who has called the CAS decision “the funeral of athletics”.

The US domination is dependent on two disciplines — athletics and swimming. In London, 31 of the US’s 103 medals, including 16 of their 46 golds, came from swimming, while 28 came from athletics (excluding the silver in men’s 4x100m relay, in which it was disqualified following Tyson Gay’s doping admission), including nine golds.

China, which came in second with 88 medals, including 38 gold, collected 10 medals each from diving and swimming, eight each from badminton and gymnastics and seven each from weightlifting and shooting. In athletics it had six medals. All except the one silver from women’s discus throw came from race-walking events. Its domination in badminton considerably eroded with India’s Saina Nehwal getting rid of her Chinese jinx. It is to be seen how China will tackle the new threats in the women’s side, which includes Spain, Thailand and Japan.

The US has not been in awesome form in athletics since the 2013 World Championships in Moscow, where Russia came on top with seven gold to the US’s six. At the World Championships in Beijing last year, the US (six golds) took third place behind Kenya and Jamaica, which had seven gold medals each. Russia won just two golds.

Kenya has run into doping problems since then, though none of their top athletes has been involved. As for Jamaica, the world will be cheering for a certain tall sprinter aiming for a unique hat-trick of doubles. Usain Bolt had captivated Beijing eight years ago with his world records in the 100 and 200 metres. He retained the sprint double in London while not being at his best in fitness and race sharpness. He has not set a world record in 100m or 200m since the 2009 Berlin World championships, but has remained the man for big occasions.

Bolt’s preparations have not been going well though. A hamstring injury forced him to pull out of the semi-final of the 100m at the Nationals back home, but he was selected nevertheless for Rio. In London last week, after winning the 200m with ease, though in a modest (by his standards) 19.89s, he declared he was fit and up for any challenge.

At the swimming pool, the US is not looking as unassailable as it did four years ago. Michael Phelps is back, and has qualified for three individual events, but did not look his best at the trials. He would be gunning for his 19th gold medal though.

India, in the meantime, has entered a record contingent of 120 sportspersons, with athletics contributing 36 of them. Expectations in athletics have come a cropper in the past, so one is wary of even forecasting a few places in the final.

For the first time since 1980, the Indian women’s hockey team has qualified, though it is not expected to cause any ripple. The men’s hockey team, thoroughly prepared, given the adequate exposure to high-level competitions and having won the silver at the recent Champions Trophy in London, is tipped to make up for its last-place finish in 2012 by reaching the semifinals or at least ending within the top six. When it is hockey we are always a little too optimistic.

Shooting is again expected to bring in most of the medals. Jitu Rai, the pistol shooter, is our best bet. Abhinav Bindra, the country’s lone gold medallist in Olympics (in Beijing 2008), is looking good for a second medal in air rifle. Gagan Narang, Apurvi Chandela and Ayonika Paul (all air rifle), Mairaj Ahmad Khan, Manavjit Sandhu and young Kynan Chenai (shotgun) are all contenders.

The archers, especially the women’s team of Deepika Kumari, Bombayla Devi and Laxmirani Majhi, are also medal hopefuls.

In wrestling though, the doping drama on the eve of departure has created havoc. Narsingh Yadav, a World Championship bronze medallist, has tested positive for a banned drug. He was chosen for the 74 kg class since he had won the “quota”. The two-time Olympic medal winner Sushil Kumar went to court but lost his attempt to have a face-off trial with Yadav. Indian medal hopes also hinge on tennis and boxing. The dream of doubling the London tally of six medals appears a little too ambitious. Anything less than 10 would be a disappointment for the fans, most of whom turn their attention away from cricket only once in four years.

K P Mohanis a former Athletics Correspondent for The Hindu

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