The Comrades And The Mullahs: China, Afghanistan and the New Asian Geopolitics 

In this comprehensive summation of events in Afghanistan in recent decades, the authors rightly and empathetically, term all that has happened, and is happening, as the tragedy of the sufferings of the Afghan people. 

The authors - one a knowledgeable, experienced China hand; the other a scholarly JNU PhD - are both journalists. Divided into ten chapters, the major part is devoted to describing and detailing Afghanistan’s contemporary history. There is a separate, informative chapter on recent developments in Xinjiang and another analysing China-Pakistan relations in the context of Afghan events. 

Having repulsed the interventions of the British in the 19th, the Soviets in the 20th and the US in the 21st centuries, Afghanistan has lived up to its sobriquet of ‘graveyard of empires’. In the last fifty years, it has been torn by internal strife, external interventions and war. The calls for ‘Afghanistan for Afghans’ and ‘Afghan-owned, Afghan-led’ processes have succeeded only in a victory for the Taliban and restoration of an unpalatable status quo ante. In the intervening years, millions have died, been grievously injured, rendered homeless; those lucky to escape with their lives have become internally displaced or international refugees. 

In the doldrums 

Afghanistan was, and remains, amongst the poorest countries in the world with $ 20 billion national and $ 570 per capita GDP. Forty per cent of it came from international aid. Ninety per cent its 40 million people live on less than $2 a day; 42 per cent is below the poverty line; another 20 per cent per cent barely above that line; half the country’s population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance. 

The Taliban takeover, yet again, in August 2021, following the precipitate US withdrawal and collapse of the Ghani government, has made matters worse. Virtually half of its Cabinet is on the UNSC terrorist blacklist. International agencies have warned that the economy is “paralysed”; several key sectors “devastated”; domestic markets “widely disrupted”; a million jobs lost. 

Some three million children are suffering from severely or moderately acute malnutrition; only 40 per cent of children aged five to seventeen years attend school; ILO estimates that some 770,000 boys and 300,000 girls serve as child labour. 

Foreign reserves remain frozen. The former governor of the Afghan bank, DAB, says that revenues from mining, opium production or trade routes might have been adequate for an insurgency but is “wholly inadequate to operate a functional government.” The UNSG has warned that “with assets frozen and with development aid paused, the economy is breaking down.” Seeking international assistance, he said, “the main responsibility for finding a way back from the abyss lies with those who are now in charge in Afghanistan.” 

Political stability is elusive; the economy vulnerable; international acceptance distant. There is little sign of relief. 

Would Afghanistan be yet another point of US-China contention? 

US is hands off 

President Biden made it clear on 31 August 2021 that the US ‘had no vital national interest in Afghanistan other than to prevent an attack on America’s homeland and our friends’. Russia has played footsy with the Taliban but is preoccupied with security issues elsewhere. 

As for China, how realistic is it for an Islam-phobic Han regime - which has gone even to the extent of banning Ramzan fasting - to become a patron and partner of an Islamic regime committed to establishing a Sunni theocratic state based on sharia law and a Wahabi world view? 

Ruthless pragmatism and abundant caution, the authors say, guides China’s policy; its objective is limited to securing its own security interests. It has established and maintained contacts with the Taliban leadership bilaterally, played a mediating role by hosting and participating in multilateral meetings. Dangling the carrot of development assistance - rendered credible by the CPEC - it sought and obtained assurances that the Taliban would not permit any ‘anti-China’ activities from its soil, including training, fund raising or recruitment for ETIM. 

China says the US walked away ‘irresponsibly’ from Afghanistan, leaving the Afghan people in a serious humanitarian crisis and creating enormous security challenges to regional stability. It is willing to contribute to the durable stability and security of Afghanistan with the immediate priority being humanitarian aid for which it pledged $ 30 million. It coordinates closely with ‘iron brother’ Pakistan. 

No boots, no billions 

China’s own informed, realistic assessment suggests that in the absence of a sustainable economic and industrial base, there is no easy money to be made. The rejoicing at US discomfiture notwithstanding, it is a ‘no boots, no billions’ approach. 

What of India? Regionalism, say the authors, is Afghanistan’s best hope. Moving away from its policy of ‘reluctant engagement’ India might ‘play a role, working with regional powers especially Iran, Russia, the Central Asian Republics and, to a limited extent, even China despite its nexus with Pakistan, to forge a coordinated response.’ Elsewhere, the authors cite the possibility of Chinese boots on the ground in PoK to protect its CPEC interests. That merits watching. 

This book is a good, timely read as events continue to unfold. 

Check out the book on Amazon here

The Comrades And The Mullahs: China, Afghanistan and the New Asian Geopolitics 

Published: Harper Collins 

Price: ₹599, Pages: 304 

(TCA Rangachari is a former diplomat and a former Director of the Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia University, Delhi) 

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