India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that a low-pressure system may materialise over east-central Bay of Bengal early next week.

Global forecasts showed that the ‘low' is likely to be triggered in the wake of Tropical Storm Banyan currently active in the northwest Pacific.

After crossing central Philippines, Banyan is forecast to enter South China Sea and track west-northwest for a likely landfall over the Vietnamese coast.

STORM PULSE

The storm is expected to lob in a pulse across Indochina into east Bay of Bengal from where it will undergo a round of intensification to become a ‘low.' While an IMD tracker seemed to suggest the system heading towards Bangladesh/Myanmar, a couple of global forecasts suggest that it might curl up over the Orissa/Gangetic West Bengal coast.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows a westerly disturbance transiting north India and dipping in to North Bay to gobble up the system and hurl it over Orissa/Gangetic West Bengal. The system could also rustle up the easterly to north-easterlies and herald in the North-East monsoon (monsoon in reverse).

REVERSE MONSOON

As if on cue, the IMD said the retreating South-West monsoon has exited almost the entire northern half of the country, parts of North Bay of Bengal.

The withdrawal line has entered peninsular India, with Vidarbha having been covered on Thursday.

The withdrawal line passed through Balasore, Keonjhargarh, Raipur, Akola, Malegaon and Dahanu. In this manner, the ground may be gradually being set for the onset of the North-East monsoon in a week's time from now.

RAIN SPURT

In fact, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services shows organised rain activity over south-east and adjoining southern peninsula around October 20 (Thursday).

Meanwhile, an IMD outlook valid until Sunday said that the fairly widespread rain or thundershower regime is likely hang in over south peninsular India and adjoining south Maharashtra, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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