Active monsoon forecast for north until month-end; south may stay quiet

The Bay of Bengal has reverted to doing what it does best during an active phase of the monsoon – go into a churn and come up each time with a low-pressure area.

This comes on the heels of a monsoon depression that had ratcheted up the monsoon to a peak over the last week; but the latest one is weaker in intensity and rainfall productivity.

MODERATE RAIN

Still, it should be able to drop moderate to heavy rainfall over parts of east and north India, especially Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttarkhand, Delhi, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh until July 30.

Parts of Gujarat and the west coast at large are also expected to gain. Entire central India, peninsular India and the south may remain largely dry.

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction is of the view that the Bay is hardly finished just yet. A follow-up ‘low is there for the asking, and might show up over the Odisha coast by July 31.

SOUTH QUIET

The new ‘low’ is predicted would sustain the rainfall over north India; here again central and peninsular north and south may sit out, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre.

The west coast would continue to witness varyingly moderate to heavy rain; the real gains this time round are forecast to accrue for southwest Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.

Meanwhile, rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has contracted rapidly to 25 per cent as a resurgent monsoon held its own during the week just past.

Latest data shows that 40 per cent of the country has received normal rainfall until Wednesday, up from 20 per cent a week ago as it rained heavily every day in most regions except the extreme north and northwest.

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