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As expected, a low-pressure area has formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal this morning.
An India Met Department outlook said that the ‘low,’ fourth in the current series, could get a move to the west-northwest.
IDEAL TRACK
This is the most ideal track for a ‘low’ to take from the Bay from the viewpoint of distribution of rainfall over both spatial and temporal scales.
The Met is of the view isolated heavy to very rainfall would lash Odisha and coastal Andhra Pradesh today.
Heavy rainfall is likely in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Konkan-Goa.
An almost similar forecast is valid for tomorrow with heavy to very heavy rain predicted for Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
HEAVY RAIN
It will be heavy over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakahand, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Gangetic West Bengal, and Chhattisgarh.
As for Tuesday, heavy to very heavy rainfall warning is valid for Chhattisgarh and west Madhya Pradesh.
Heavy rainfall is also likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Odisha.
EXTENDED RAIN
Meanwhile, fresh activity is building in the northwest Pacific off the Philippines which has in the recent past seen intense typhoon activity.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has forecast the possibility of a typhoon taking shape and travelling north-east towards East China Sea.
This would need to be watched for likely ramifications for the Indian monsoon during the week.
Extended forecasts until August 3 indicate that rain or thundershowers would break out at most places along the west coast, many places over central India and adjoining northwest, and over Gujarat.
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