An expected drop in cardamom output by 40—50 per cent in 2012—13 season may see a severe shortage of the condiment during the festive season this year, growers said today.

Cardamom is widely used in the country for making sweets and other food products during the festive seasons like Ramazan, Ganesh Chaturthi, Navaratri (Durga Puja), Dussera and Diwali, running from August till November.

“We fear 40-50 percent drop in crop harvest for season 2012-2013 due to lack of summer rainfall during last four months in Kerala, ” Cardamom Growers Association President Mathew Kannamudyil said.

New season harvest estimates by planters body is 9,000 tonnes only as compared to last year, whereas cardamom consumption in India is estimated at 11,000 to 12,000 tonnes per annum.

The festival of Ramazan this year is falling in the month of August. Usually cardamom supplies for Ramazan to both local and export markets take place from new harvest every year.

Since the crop is delayed till September, and Ramazan is coming early, therefore, the demand will have to be met from current year’s harvest.

Trader Sanjay Kumar said, the demand of cardamom in Ramazan festival is generally 5,000-7,000 tonnes every year - both local and exports market. Procurement starts three months in advance, as all ports in the Middle East stop functioning one month before Ramazan.

There is an estimate of a total stock of about 2,500 tonnes in cardamom cultivated area. Thus, a major shortfall during Ramazan and Hindu festivals may take the price upwards to any level, Kumar said.

Good grade of cardamom, which usually goes for exports, is quoting at a premium now. Coupled with low stocks of approximately 2,500 tonnes in Idukki district of Kerala, traders say that it is the right time to stock as they see very lean 3-4 months going ahead, until the new harvest arrives in September.

India has seen the highest export of more than 4,500 tonnes this year. Coupled with annual local demand of 12,000 tonnes, the 2011-12 harvest seems to be completely consumed, Kumar said, adding that next year crop estimates of 9,000 tonnes will further squeeze the market.

Following the reports of failure of Guatemala crop, Indian cardamom is in great demand and traders say that prices of cardamom may remain firm.

Prices have already started rising since the last 10 days on Ramazan demand. Traders said that arrivals have been robust, and so has the demand, leading prices to increase by more than Rs 350 to Rs 1,100 per kg in last seven days in export quality material and may touch Rs 1,500 per kg in the near future.

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