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With another 10 days to go and four per cent in surplus, the monsoon does not appear to be in a mood to exit the country any time soon.
Two more low-pressure systems are likely to materialise over the north Bay of Bengal, according to global model forecasts.
FRESH SYSTEM
The second in the series is expected on the very last day of the four-month-long season, according to an outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation has sprung up over north-west Bay of Bengal on Monday, which is expected to intensify as a ‘low.'
This will only prolong heavy monsoon showers in east and northeast India for another four to five days, the IMD said.
But the IMD predicted that the conditions are also evolving for the withdrawal of monsoon from west Rajasthan during the next four to five days.
SIKKIM BATTERED
Meanwhile, the continued heavy rain is feared to add the agony of those suffering from the damaging impact of the very strong earthquake that jolted Sikkim on Sunday evening as well as hamper relief operations in the striken area.
A special forecast for the east and north-east said that the analysis of meteorological conditions and inputs from satellite and numerical weather models suggest rainfall to continue at many places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya and Gangetic West Bengal.
MORE TO COME
Heavy to very heavy rainfall would also occur at isolated places mainly over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar on Tuesday.
However, subsequent to that, the intensity of rainfall may decrease over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar, Assam and Meghalaya but it would increase over Gangetic west Bengal and Jharkhand.
This is likely from the second ‘low' in the Bay, which ECMWF expects to move west towards central India. But any intervening western disturbance system could set up interactive rains over east India.
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