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India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects day temperatures to start rising over northwest and adjoining central India next week.
But it remains to be seen what beneficial impact this would have on the monsoon current from the seas to the southwest of the peninsula.
ESSENTIAL GRADIENT
The monsoon would need a clear temperature/pressure gradient to ride into mainland India. For this, it’s essential that the northwest should have been put intense heating.
Normally, this should happen from mid-April. Heating continues to be mild thanks to the calming influence of western disturbances crossing in from time to time.
The IMD has in fact warned of thunder squalls for the next two days over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi along with east India.
Mercury is expected to fall thanks to the cloud and dust cover, and the occasional showers.
This would once again cap the limit to which mercury can lift in northwest India. But IMD sees a respite in rain activity after May 15.
FRESH WESTERLY
By this time, however, the monsoon would have reached Andaman Islands if the indications obtaining till date are to be believed.
Meanwhile on Thursday, a fresh western disturbance has called in over north Pakistan and neighbourhood en route to northwest India.
There is also an induced cyclonic circulation following close behind, and this could prove the weather maker over northwest India after crossing in.
A cyclonic circulation has been persisting over south Chhattisgarh, which has sent down a weather-making trough of lower pressure down to south Tamil Nadu.
This formation cuts across Andhra Pradesh, and sets up the breeding ground for thunderstorms.
RAIN FORECAST
Orissa, West Bengal, and the northeastern states are expected to be get impacted by inclement weather over the next two days.
A similar outlook is valid for Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh in east and east-central India.
In the south, the trough is likely to impact weather over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep from Friday, the IMD said.
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