Japanese researchers have lately agreed that the currently strong La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial and east Pacific could weaken quickly over the next few months but would rebound later this year.

This is the only change in the outlook of researchers at the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), who had until now projected that the La Nina would continue unhindered through the year and into the next.

The latest outlook made available to Business Line on Monday says that the cold La Nina condition would rebound in late 2011 and persist up to early 2012.

This would mean that the Indian monsoon would co-exist with neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions in the east Pacific around the time the four-month season gets under way in June later this year.

The monsoon had ended up just above normal last year on the back of a strong concurrent La Nina, but which also set off flooding conditions in parts of the country as well as in Pakistan.

Associated with the strong La Nina influence, below-normal surface-air temperature and above-normal precipitation would continue in Australia, Brazil and southern Africa during the next few months, the RIGC said.

‘ACTIVE' WESTERLY

Southeastern China, the US, and southwestern Japan would likely witness warmer-than-normal and dry climate during the spring-summer seasons.

Meanwhile, back home, the prevailing ‘active' westerly disturbance would cause heavy to very heavy rain or snowfall at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Tuesday as well.

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