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Maximum temperatures are expected to remain below normal by 2-4 degree Celsius over northwest, central and east India. This is what India Meteorological Department's (IMD) weather outlook valid until Wednesday says.
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
Rain or thundershowers would break out over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Monday and at a few places thereafter. Dust storms or thunderstorms are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh on Monday and increase thereafter.
Thunderstorm activity would continue over plains of northwest and adjoining central and east India until Wednesday.
This puts paid to any hopes of sustained heating to begin over northwest India any time soon. How this would impact the monsoon, which rides the heating/pressure differential from the peninsular tip, remains to be seen. But initial signals from global weather models suggest that seasonal rains might arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar around the usual time of May 15-20.
ONSET IN BAY
They are likely to be heralded by a weather system – low-pressure or depression – though prevailing westerlies would guide which direction it would travel.
A US model suggests the formation of such a system, which would be guided by westerlies to take a north-northeast direction towards Bangladesh/Myanmar. Simultaneously, east-central Arabian Sea may also throw up a weaker system that is forecast to die out just as the Bay gains in strength and moves north-northeast.
These are initial forecasts just yet and need to be monitored continuously for verification and assessment.
Cyclonic whirl
Meanwhile on Sunday, the western disturbance over north Pakistan kicked up a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining northwest Rajasthan.
A trough from this system extended up to east Madhya Pradesh. This ‘combo system' is mainly responsible for prevailing weather conditions over northwest. Thunder squalls have been forecast over Madhya Pradesh while dust storms and thunderstorms have been forecast elsewhere.
The volatile weather over east and northeast India is also set to continue with Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the receiving end.
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