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The monsoon has reverted back to a deficit mode with the flows over central India having ‘switched off' temporarily and a lull over interior peninsular persisting.
The seasonal rains had rallied over the last week to level with the normal for the season ending last week but central India drying up immediately after brought up the deficit.
DEFICIT AT 2%
India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessed the deficit as two per cent on Monday, with the weak phase expected to last not more than another day.
In fact, a longer term outlook valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would return to south peninsular and central India, apart from the North-eastern States.
The IMD said the rains would start scaling up over south peninsular India, the North-eastern States and along the foothills of Himalayas from Wednesday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would break out over south peninsular India on Tuesday and increase thereafter.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Jammu Division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Konkan and Goa on Tuesday. Kalpana-1 satellite pictures on Monday afternoon showed the presence of convective (cloud-bearing) clouds rising over parts of northwest India, the North-eastern States, Orissa, Saurashtra, Kutch, south peninsular India, west-central and south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and east Arabian Sea.
Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation has popped up over west-central Bay of Bengal, which had been forecast earlier by a few global models.
CYCLONIC WHIRL
A western disturbance persisted over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir even as an offshoot cyclonic circulation lurked over southeast Rajasthan.
A short-term forecast valid until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Gujarat and south Rajasthan on Tuesday and decrease thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over the western Himalayan region, the North-eastern States and along the west coast.
Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Monday morning saw widespread rainfall being reported from Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Konkan, Goa, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was fairly widespread over Jammu and Kashmir, south Rajasthan, Gujarat, interior Karnataka, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim.
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