Agri Business

Monsoon surplus rides on heavy session in east

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on September 25, 2011


The monsoon withdrawal process seems to have slowed after running into a heavy to very heavy rain belt active in the east of the country.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) up date on Sunday evening said that the withdrawal line is stuck along Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer, Deesa, and Porbandar.


A remnant well-marked low-pressure from an earlier depression located over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar was masterminding the heavy monsoon, which has maintained the four percent surplus on Sunday.

The latent monsoon activity has cut down the deficit in east and northeast India to 14 per cent (falling within ‘normal' as per IMD definition).

Individual deficits in the region are 31 per cent in Assam and Meghalaya, 26 per cent in Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura and 24 per cent in Arunachal Pradesh.

Towards the south, however, the surplus in peninsular India has been reduced to four per cent mainly from lack of any significant rain activity over the past week or so.


This is apparently because the ‘pulse' expected to reach the Bay from upstream northwest Pacific/south China Sea itself got delayed after the storminess did not get initiated there in time.

But, as of now, there are two raging storms, Naset and Haitang, in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea.

Of this, Nesat, is already a Category-2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale storm intensity, and is expected to hit northeast Philippines as a dangerous Category-4 storm.


From here, it is shown as entering the South China Sea and headed for a landfall over Taiwan by Friday.

Before this could happen, the prevailing South China Sea storm, Haitang, would have made a landfall over the Vietnamese coast as a depression.

These tropical storms are expected to influence the weather in the Bay of Bengal lying next the west and bring rains into the southern peninsula during the first week of October.

Weathermen are also watching if the storms could drag in the northeast monsoon (or the monsoon in reverse) in case if the southwest monsoon manages to exit the landmass early enough.

Published on September 25, 2011

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