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A typhoon in northwest Pacific is expected to have favourable impact on the dynamics associated with onset of southwest monsoon on Kerala coast.
Typhoon Mawar has been tracking initially north-north westwards towards the Philippine archipelago until today.
But global weather models show Mawar being steered north-northeast and away from the Philippines into central Pacific south of Japan over the next few days.
Being the dominant system in the northern hemisphere, ‘Mawar’ would ‘drag’ the monsoon current into place over the Arabian Sea and help precipitate the onset over Kerala.
It would also prevent an existing Arabian Sea circulation from straying into north-northwest (Oman-ward) and further delaying the onset.
Instead, the circulation would also be steered to head east and help the onset process.
The flip side is that a chunk of the monsoon flows would get directed into south Bay of Bengal and into adjoining South China Sea/northwest Pacific to feed ‘Mawar.’
It is expected to weaken by June 10, subsequent to which the Indian monsoon would come to its own, as per model predictions.
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