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An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday evening has said that the “break monsoon” conditions over the country are expected to lift in the next two days.
“There are indications of slight southward shifting of the eastern end of the monsoon trough. This would subsequently lead to revival of rainfall activity from Tuesday onwards,” the IMD statement said.
The land-based monsoon trough is currently nestling along the foothills of the Himalayas, a condition normally associated with weak/break monsoon.
“Break monsoon” refers to the natural but inevitable pause in rainfall activity over large parts of the country after a busy first spell.
During this period, rains are confined mostly along the Himalayan foothills and parts of the eastern coast of India, especially Tamil Nadu.
Movement of the land-based monsoon trough across northwest to southeast India towards its normal position to the south is associated with a reviving monsoon.
Indications are that the revival may not be spectacular given there is no forecast of a strong low-pressure area forming in the Bay.
The eastern end of the monsoon is normally hooked on to a weather system forming in this manner in the Bay whose strength in turn determines the endurance capacity of the trough and by extension the prospects of the monsoon.
Global models indicate the possibility of a cyclonic circulation forming straddling the northwest Bay and adjoining Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal coasts early this week to signal revival of rains over east and adjoining central India.
These are expected to spread to west India and adjoining west-central India from Friday. Even parts of north peninsular India, too, are expected to receive what are now considered life-saving rains.
The last 24 hours ending Sunday morning saw widespread rainfall being reported from West Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was fairly widespread over Bihar, the Northeastern States and interior Karnataka and scattered over Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would break out over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya.
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