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Scattered light rain or snowfall has occurred over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as a causative western disturbance persisted over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.
The system is expected to move in completely over Jammu and Kashmir and be on course for its continued away-movement to the east.
UNSTABLE WEATHER
Unstable weather has already been triggered over the plains of northwest India with scattered rainfall being reported from Punjab, west Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Wednesday afternoon.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that isolated rain was also reported from west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and east Madhya Pradesh during this period.
The western disturbance will continue to affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India for three more days, the IMD said.
A weather warning said that isolated heavy rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Thursday and Friday.
Isolated hailstorms or thunder squalls may unfold over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh during this period.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Morning's satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir and southwest Bay of Bengal.
Meanwhile in the south, the upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal persisted.
An extended outlook valid until Monday said that scattered precipitation would occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh while, it would be isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
The gradually daily temperature maxima in northwest India are proving a perfect foil for fully-loaded trains of cooler western disturbances to trigger sudden and sometimes violent weather incidents along the plains.
WESTERLY ACTIVITY
The IMD has warned of the possibility of the weather getting frequently unstable over the plains from west to east even as a bulk of the moisture has bypassed it beyond the Himalayas to the north-northeast.
Indications are that western disturbance activity would continue into the next week, though noticeably weaker in intensity – which means the weather aberrations would be confined to the hills and linearly weaker over the immediate plains in Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan.
RESTIVE BAY
There are also hints about the Bay of Bengal getting into action mode next week, but the benefits would be largely confined to the southern peninsula, mainly south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala.
Global model forecasts tend to suggest a summer that is less hot than the last year for peninsular India i.e. for March, April and May. They also signal the possibility of enhanced thundershower activity for the region during this period.
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