Cashew continued to trade in a wide range last week. With prices dependent on origin, seller, buyer and shipment period, some trading took place across the price spectrum.

But the volume traded was small and limited mainly to the W-320 grade. Other grades were largely neglected. The domestic market was also quiet with no change in prices after the small increase last week, according to market sources based in Mumbai.

The price ranges offered were $3.70-3.85 for W240, $3.30-3.50 for W320, from $3.15-3.30 for W450 and SW320, $2.35-2.45 for splits, and for pieces it was $1.90-2 a pound (f.o.b).

The import period for the cashew industry is the second and third quarters of the year as about 70 per cent of the world crop is collected then and a fair amount of kernel business also takes place. Hence, an analysis of the trend in the important period for the past five years would give some idea about the market movements, Mr Pankaj N. Sampat, a Mumbai-based dealer told Business Line . In general, prices for W320 have always been higher in September than in April by at least over 10 per cent.

“Although the cashew market rarely follows a historical trend, it would be interesting to see whether the history of last 5 years – September prices being higher than April – will be repeated in 2012,” he said.

The outlook on the demand side will continue to be hazy, which will be the key driver in the market for the coming months. This is because the 2012 supply side factors are already known and have been factored into the current market levels.

In Asia, we can reasonably expect retail offtake to be higher than in 2011 because prices are much lower than they were during the peak consumption period last year. Also, the difference with the competing nuts is lower, especially in India, he said.

In the main importing regions, North America and the EU, apart from actual retail off take, “which we strongly believe is a combination of price and availability, a more important factor is likely to be the packers and retailers strategy,” he added. With the tough economic situation and tight financial markets, they may be inclined to buy just enough to meet core demand (without promotions) and live quarter to quarter. This will mean continuation of the trend of periodic short term buying leading to spikes and dips, he predicted.

Although there have been several enquiries in the last two weeks for later deliveries, not much has been converted into trades till now as there is still a large gap between sellers’ and buyers’ ideas. Sellers are not prepared to take large forward positions unless they have a cushion for forward risk. Most buyers do not want to pay the premium because they do not see any reason for big price change in coming months. This could change in the coming weeks.

A dullness prevails in the raw cashew nut (RCN) market also, Mr Sampat said. Shipments from Ivory Coast (IVC) are proceeding slowly. After a late beginning, Guinea Bissau has been relatively fast. Overall, like last year, it seems shipments from West Africa will continue through September, spreading the total volume over a longer period, he said.

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