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All-India rainfall is down to 32 per cent as of last evening as a low-pressure area takes shape anew in the northwest Bay of Bengal.
The preparatory upper cyclonic circulation is already in place; a resident circulation over land (weakened erstwhile ‘low’) over Uttar Pradesh is still generating considerable rain over the region.
AUGUST SIGNALS
Monsoon watchers are scouring the sky to gain an early outlook into August even as all available indications that the rest of July will turn productive for central India and parts of northwest.
August can make or mar the current turnaround phase in the monsoon depending on how it can keep the Bay of Bengal sufficiently ‘excited’ to generate further rain-producing weather systems.
At least one positive signal, though admittedly early in the day, is available from a Taiwan-based forecaster which sees the Bay of Bengal erupting yet again during the first week of August.
Experts say it would be premature just yet to make any concrete assessment of the prediction that suggests formation of the next ‘low’ between July 31 and August 4.
HEAVY RAIN
Meanwhile, areas benefiting from the circulation over Uttar Pradesh are Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha across northwest and east India.
The ‘live’ offshore trough from Gujarat to Karnataka brought moderate to heavy rain to Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
The ‘low’ expected to take shape next in the Bay is forecast to bring a punishing spell of rain across east, central and west India.
Initial forecasts indicate that a heavy rain system would lie straggled with one limb fixed bang over Mumbai and the other over Chhattisgarh by Tuesday.
OUT INTO SEA?
The system will move at a slow pace to the west with the Chhattisgarh limb curling in and literally rolling over in a whole across Madhya Pradesh towards the Mumbai limb.
The combined system would leave a trail of flooding rain across this part of central India and also over north peninsular India even while dumping heavy rain over Mumbai and adjoining south Gujarat.
The system is forecast to move further west into west Gujarat and then into northwest Gujarat, bringing moderate to heavy rain along the way.
A US military outlook suggested that this system will withdraw into the northeast Arabian Sea, pick up some intensity, and move west towards the Oman coast.
This is something that needs to be watched since it could also mean that monsoon moisture could once again be drained out of India.
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