Sunday's depression over west-central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and seemed to have run out of fizz as it encountered colder seawaters over west-central Arabian Sea.

Contrary to its outlook on Sunday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now assessed as low the probability of its further intensification as a deep depression.

SYSTEM HALTS

Around Monday noon, the system screeched to a halt at a place 1,800 km west-northwest of Mangalore, but much closer to Socotra Island (Yemen, 550 km to north-east) and Salalah (Oman, 500 km to southeast).

A prevailing western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir continued to fan in colder Arctic air over the region further capping the possibilities of system intensification.

Global models continued to maintain a watch for the system to be scooped up and carried towards Karachi to push rains over adjoining southwest Rajasthan and north Gujarat.

CYCLONIC WHIRL

As expected, a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation has appeared over south-east Arabian Sea on Monday.

This system is forecast to whip up some activity and gain in strength over the next few days.

It may likely get pushed into central Arabian Sea by prevailing easterlies, away from the Indian coast.

To the other side of the peninsula, the rain-driving trough of low extending from south-west Bay of Bengal to west-central Bay of Bengal persisted.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

Insat imagery on Monday afternoon showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds standing tall over parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, west-central and south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and central and south Arabian Sea.

A weather warning said that heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep on Tuesday and Wednesday.

An extended outlook valid until Saturday suggested that rain or thundershowers would occur at many places over extreme south peninsular India.

RAIN, SNOW

The western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir is expected to affect the western Himalayan region during the next three days.

Rain or snow would continue to occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir and at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

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