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The India Met Department (IMD) has said that the low-pressure area over the North Andaman Sea has weakened into a cyclonic circulation and lay in part over the Arakan coast straddling Western Myanmar.
This has put paid to any further chances of intensification of the system, a possibility that the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology had alluded to till late on Monday.
Earlier in the day, the Myanmar Met Office had said that the ‘low had moved in a North-North-East direction and reached the Gulf of Mottama (Martaban),’ an arm of the Andaman Sea in southern part of Myanmar, closer to the mainland.
No traction
The ‘low’ was expected to move inland by Wednesday night. It did not get traction since it was ‘locked in’ between the land features of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and South Myanmar.
Meanwhile, a couple of global model forecasts have maintained the view that the activity would now shift to the Arabian Sea during the second week of May (9-15).
The expected arrival of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that sets up heavy rain and clouds over West Indian Ocean (and adjoining South Arabian Sea) has lent more credence to this theory.
One other model seemed to suggest that even the Bay of Bengal too might get influenced to an extent, though not to a degree as the Arabian Sea would.
Thunder squalls
The IMD has continued to maintain its outlook for violent weather for East India and the North-Eastern States for two more days.
This is in view of strong convergence of opposing winds combining with moisture carried in by winds blowing in from the seas triggering severe thunder squalls and heavy rain.
Western disturbances
Over North-West India, an incoming western disturbance could spark scattered to widespread precipitation over the hills and isolated to scattered rain and thunder squalls in the plains.
Western disturbances are potential weather-makers during this time of the year, with their entrails ‘lighting up’ activity over an already volatile East and North-East India.
The western disturbance moves periodically from West to East and would be active right into the onset of the monsoon.
The current disturbance would be active over the next couple of days.
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