India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the low-pressure area forming over the South-East Bay of Bengal on Sunday will likely concentrate into a depression the next day. Thereafter, it may intensify further into a cyclone (to be called Mocha) and move towards the Central Bay. Details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of the ‘low.’  

Light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall may lash most places in Andaman & Nicobar on Sunday and grow to become heavy to very heavy rain during Monday to Wednesday. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph (strength of depression) may prevail over the South-East Bay and adjoining areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea on Sunday. 

Near-cyclonic by Tuesday

The wind speed would gradually increase to 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph (near-cyclonic) over the South-East Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and the North Andaman Sea from Wednesday.  Wind speed would increase to 60-70 kmph (full-blown cyclone) gusting to 80 kmph over South-East and adjoining Central Bay from Wednesday. 

The sea condition may turn ‘rough’ (wave height of 8-13 ft) on Sunday and ‘very rough’ (13-20 ft) from Tuesday over the South-East Bay. It may become ‘very rough to high’ (20-30 ft) over South-East and adjoining Central Bay Monday and ‘high to very high’ (30-46 ft) from Tuesday. It is likely to be ‘rough to very rough’ (8-20 ft) over the Andaman Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday and ‘very rough to high’ (20-30 ft) over the North Andaman Sea from Wednesday. 

Large excess rainfall

Most of the country has received unseasonal large excess rainfall so far during the season including pre-monsoon (March 1 to May 5) with north-west India and central India going without the customary heating essential for setting up the required temperature and pressure gradient between land and sea, which drives the South-West monsoon from June. 

No heat wave is forecast for any part of the country for next five days. April and May normally witness searing temperatures but the latter have been conspicuous by their absence this year over these areas. In fact, the national capital New Delhi (in North-West India) saw temperatures cool to around 15℃ during this week, while many parts of the region and neighbourhood and adjoining central India saw heavy rain, thunderstorms and hail storms and the upper reaches received snowfall. 

Uniform distribution, too

Distribution of excess rainfall has been uniform across the country with the exceptions being the scanty subdivision of coastal Karnataka (big deficit of -85 per cent); Arunachal Pradesh (-46 per cent); Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-45 per cent); Assam and Meghalaya (-30 per cent); and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (-21 per cent), the IMD said on Friday. 

The islands threw up a mixed bag with Andaman & Nicobar in the deficit (-78 per cent) and Lakshadweep receiving normal rainfall (+8 per cent). Elsewhere, rainfall was normal over plains (+19 per cent) and hills (+12 per cent) of West Bengal and Sikkim; Himachal Pradesh (+9 per cent); South Interior Karnataka (+1 per cent); and Kerala (-4 per cent). 

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is likely over the South Peninsula during next five days. The heavy rainfall trend may sustain over parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on Friday while a similar forecast is valid over south interior Karnataka and Kerala on Monday and Tuesday.   

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW