Agri Business

Buy gold if it touches $1,335/ounce

Gnanasekaar T | Updated on April 12, 2018 Published on April 12, 2018

Comex gold futures slipped from their 11-week high on Thursday as the dollar gained and investors booked profits, but geo-political tensions in Syria capped the losses.

Comex gold futures moved perfectly in line with our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, prices are finding good support and consolidating in a range between $1,300/10 and $1,335/45 per ounce zone.

The lower end of the zone could once again come in for a test before rising. Price structures favour a gradual rise after correcting lower from $1,365 a previous resistance.

Near-term upticks could be capped in the $1,365 zone and a close above here could trigger sharper up move immediately towards $1,374 or even higher subsequently.

A positive trigger for the medium-term in sustaining the uptrend is likely to be above a close of $1,375 levels.

In the coming week, we expect $1,338-40 levels to hold for a push higher towards $1,365 opening the way for to $1,374 levels or even higher to $1,400 subsequently.

Unexpected fall below $1,328 could see a sharp decline to $1,310 levels again, which is not our favoured view.

Wave counts: It is most likely that the fall from record $1,925 to the recent low of $1,088 so far, was either a possible corrective wave “A”, with a possibility to even extend towards $1,025-30 levels or a complete correction of A-B-C ending with this decline.

Subsequently, to this decline, a corrective wave “B” could unfold with targets near $1,375 or even higher. After that, a wave “C” could begin lower again.

Alternatively, we can also expect wave “B” to extend to $1,476 levels. If the current decline as a whole from $1,920 can be considered as a fourth wave, then the fifth wave could begin and cross $1,700 in the long-term. An eventual break above $1,355 could see the wave “B” scenario emerge in the coming sessions.

While $1,270 holds, we still favour prices rising higher towards $1,450-75 in the form of wave “B”. We will re asses around $1,450-70 levels on the potential for a wave “C” decline subsequently.

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD have gone above the zero line of the indicator again, indicating a bullish reversal. Only a cross over again below the zero line could hint at a bearish reversal in trend.

Therefore, buy Comex gold on dips around $1,335-40 with the stop-loss at $1,325 targeting $1,374 followed by $1,395.

Supports are at $1,340, 1,320 and 1,305. Resistances are at $1,365, 1,374 and 1,398.

The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is risk of loss in trading.

Published on April 12, 2018
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