Cyclone alert. Central Bay of Bengal warms up to host first pre-monsoon cyclone 

Parts of the Central Bay of Bengal have warmed up to beyond 31℃, way beyond the threshold, to host a projected cyclonic storm even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared a watch for a preparatory pre-monsoon low-pressure area likely forming over the South-East Bay by Sunday. As has been the trend over the past few years, it is likely to set itself on a course of rapid intensification. 

The ‘low’ is likely to intensify into a depression by the next day (Monday) itself and further into a cyclone to be named Mocha as per protocol, from a list available already. The cyclone is expected to intensify further as per early predictions, and global models suggest a track that takes it away from the East Coast of India towards Bangladesh likely skirting West Bengal by a whisker. 

May skirt India’s coast

What lends credence to these predictions is expected arrival of a western disturbance from the opposite side (east-ward moving from North-West India). It is depicted as dipping low over the Central Bay just in time to scoop the storm by Wednesday (May 10) at the stage of a depression. The IMD said details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of the ‘low.’ 

Behaviour of the evolving system is under constant watch and is being monitored regularly, the national forecaster said this morning. The western disturbance, which will have a major say on the track of the prospective cyclone, is expected to reach North-West India by tomorrow night, the IMD said. A prevailing western disturbance lies along the Kota-Jhansi-Allahabad-Patna latitude across South-East Rajasthan, West and East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and yield place to the successor.

Inbound western disturbance 

Other atmospheric features presiding over the wet pre-monsoon include a cyclonic circulation each over North-East Rajasthan, North Tamil Nadu and South Chhattisgarh; and a trough or wind discontinuity (narrow corridor of low pressure) running down from South-West Madhya Pradesh to South Tamil Nadu. Satellite pictures this morning showed build-up of thunderclouds over the seas to the South-West of Sri Lanka extending into adjoining South-West and South-East Bay of Bengal. 

Clouds getting organised

These clouds will gradually get organised around a cyclonic circulation forming over the South-East Bay by Saturday, which would deepen as the expected ‘low’ the next day before setting itself on steady intensification as a cyclone. Elsewhere, less dense clouds hovered this morning along the East Coast from Madurai, Thanjavur and parts of Chennai in Tamil Nadu; Nellore, Guntur, Vijayawada, Rajahmundry and Vizianagaram in Coastal Andhra Pradesh; Bhubaneswar and Cuttack in Odisha; and Kolkata in West Bengal, extending into parts of North-East India and adjoining Bangladesh. 

Rain, snow forecast 

A short-term outlook from the IMD said the incoming western disturbance will trigger a fresh spell of rainfall over North-West India the region from tomorrow, with scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow over the hills and isolated to scattered rainfall over plains for subsequent 2-3 days.

Over Central India, light isolated to scattered rain with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is likely during the next four days. Over South India, scattered to fairly widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are forecast during next four days.

Over the North-East, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely for next two days with heavy rain for parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. 

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