Rain deficit over Central India has disappeared entirely and all-India rainfall figures bounced back to a surplus of three per cent on Friday as a late rally swung the monsoon into another productive phase into the last 10 days.

Prospects have brightened further with India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal by Monday. 

Monsoon relief rally

The IMD suspects the fresh ‘low’ might intensify as a depression, a prospect mentioned in these columns last week. July is normally the rainiest monsoon, and is followed by August, the second rainiest. Earlier, an unusually rampant June had dumped heavy to very heavy rain over West India, followed soon by North-West India, landing both a rare surplus that has sustained ever since. But this was at the cost of parts of the South Peninsula and Central India, both now seen benefiting from the relief monsoon rally. 

Fresh low-pressure area

On Friday, an existing ‘low’ over South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining seas was driving the rains, ably supported by a productive monsoon trough in the neighbourhood and a shear zone of monsoon turbulence in the higher levels of the atmosphere. It is into this setting that the fresh ‘low’ will force an entry on Monday. An incoming western disturbance over Afghanistan is waiting for its turn. 

Central India, West India

The IMD has forecast light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Central India during next five days. Isolated extremely heavy ran is likely over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on Saturday. As for West India, fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may continue over Konkan, Goa, ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat during next three days. It will be isolated heavy to very heavy over Mumbai for two days.

More rain for Telangana

As for South India, light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is likely over Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana during next five days. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal and south interior Karnataka on Sunday and over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday.