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After crossing the Odisha coast, the track of the latest Bay of Bengal cyclone will head in a classical west-north-west direction (diagonal across Central and Western India) into the weekend and early next week.
To be named ‘Daye’ (Myanmar language) as per protocol, the cyclone is likely to be the last sea-based system to emerge during the 2018 monsoon. But it will drop considerable rain along the track reaching right into North Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Last weather system
Global models also showed activity building over the Southern Hemisphere even as ‘Daye’ rages, in a clear signal that the monsoon may be preparing to exit India, though the process has been delayed already and rains may spill ove to early October.
These models also show that the West Pacific/South China Sea could still spin up storms and cyclones (typhoons) after ‘Daye’ blows over. But these may not set up resonance in the Bay as was the case with super typhoon Mangkhut.
It was a ‘pulse’ emanating from the super typhoon that set up a preparatory circulation in the Bay that went on to concentrate as a low-pressure area, then a depression, deep depression, and ultimately cyclone Daye.
There are no such prospects from building typhoons anymore since winds, both in the Bay and Arabian Sea, would turn anticyclonic by the month end. Anticyclones in the sea do not allow rain-friendly circulations to develop.
Heavy rain outlook
Meanwhile, having peaked with wind speeds of up to 70 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/hr, ‘Daye’ would continue to move west-north-west over land after crossing the Odisha coast, and weaken back into a deep depression on Friday.
Its movement across Central India would bring enhanced rainfall into Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jharkhand and the plains of Bengal during the next two days and over Central, adjoining peninsular, and North-West India from Friday to Monday.
Forecast for Friday: Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy rain over Telangana; heavy to very rain over Odisha, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh; heavy rain over Bengal, Sikkim, East Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, and Coastal and North Interior Karnataka.
Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and the North-Eastern States.
Saturday: Heavy to very heavy rain over East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh; heavy rain over Assam, Meghalaya, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and North Interior Karnataka. Thunderstorm accompanied with hailstorm is forecast over Jammu & Kashmir.
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