Deficit at 12%, but rains elude South

The rain deficit for the country as a whole fell to 12 per cent by Thursday on the back of a locally active monsoon in North India, but the deficit in the South continues to persist.

It remained cloudy over many parts in the South on Thursday with isolated rain being reported overnight. However, organised showers were conspicuous by their absence.

A few global models are still keeping a lookout for a circulation building in the seas off the East Coast, but these do not find a mention any more in India Met Department (IMD) updates.

Below-normal show

Overall, the monsoon performance in July, normally the rainiest month, is panning out to be otherwise and along the lines predicted by the APEC Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea.

It had projected an indifferent July for the entire country and below-normal rainfall for its entire northern half. Active along the northern fringes, the monsoon has for now built up a ‘large excess’ in three Met subdivisions in the North.

These are are East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh, where recorded rainfall has been 20-59 per cent above the long-term average.

South India is projected to be better off in parts with above-normal rainfall predicted for the coastal and southern fringes of Kerala as well as the adjoining extreme southern parts of Tamil Nadu during the rest of July.

The Korean agency had also predicted that the second half of the monsoon (August and September) would see above-normal rain over the South Peninsula and parts of North India, while it would be normal over Central India. It had gone on to forecast a ‘reasonably good’ North-East monsoon for Tamil Nadu and Kerala, with October and November likely witnessing above-normal rains, but normal to below-normal in December.

As of Thursday, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and interior Maharashtra (Met subdivisions of Marathawada and Vidarbha) have nursed a deficit for a good part of June and so far in July.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts, parts of the South Peninsula might witness thundershowers from Sunday peaking into the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, the monsoon is yet to cover the entire country 11 days after the normal time when it should have entered the north-western-most Met subdivision of West Rajasthan. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls are likely to continue over Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka on Friday with the intensity reducing during the subsequent four days.

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