Rapid advance of monsoon has further shaved off four per cent from the rain deficit for the country as a whole to 19 per cent on Tuesday — four per cent lower than the previous day — with the monsoon’s northern limit progressing beyond Gujarat to enter even more areas of Rajasthan. 

Heavy to very heavy rain 

The northern limit passed through Jodhpur, Sikar, Narnaul and Ferozpur, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. On Monday, extremely heavy rain fell over Chhattisgarh while it was very heavy over Konkan, Goa, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, and coastal Karnataka and heavy over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Saurashtra, Kutch, and Madhya Maharashtra. 

Deficit areas shrink 

Areas with the worst rain deficit (above 60 per cent) has shrunk further to just Kerala, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Bihar. It ranged between -20 per cent to -49 per cent over 16 other meteorological subdivisions but most of North-West and West India fell either in the normal (-19 per cent to +19 per cent); excess (+20 to +59 per cent) or large excess (+60 per cent or more) categories.

Low-pressure area rules 

The rain-driving low-pressure area was located over North Chhattisgarh on Tuesday, and the IMD expects it to move West-North-West towards North-West Madhya Pradesh during the next three days. An East-West trough runs from North-West Rajasthan to North-East Bay of Bengal while the offshore trough stretched full length from South Gujarat to Kerala, representing active monsoon conditions. 

Heavy rain for North 

Numerical model predictions of the IMD shows the ‘low’ travelling through Central and North-West India over the next five days and reaching Delhi and neighbourhood by July 3. Buffeted by a belt of heavy rainfall, it may later head to the Himalayan foothills and weaken. The West Coast also may witness heavy rainfall during this phase, while it would be weak to moderate over the rest of the country. 

Outlook for UP, Rajasthan

The IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall for west and east Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand for next five days. A similar pattern has been predicted for many parts of Central India, East and North-East India, the West Coast and South India variously during this period.