Amid dismal export scenario coupled with suppressed sentiments in the domestic market, jeera (cumin seed) prices are set to witness a slide in the coming weeks.

On the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX), jeera futures for March 18, 2016 expiry opened at ₹15,500 a quintal – much below ₹16,540 for January expiry contract, both lower than the spot market.

The slackness in the prices is attributed to weak sentiment in the market owing to dismal exports.

Sliding exports Notably, geo-political trouble in two major exporting countries – Syria and Turkey – seems to have failed to spice up jeera exports from India due to higher domestic price.

Jeera exports from India are likely to decline by about 40-45 per cent to around 85,000-1,00,000 tonnes during 2015-16 compared to an estimated exports of around 1,55,000 tonnes last year. Exports of the spice have been on a decline since 2013-14 from 1,60,000 tonnes in that year.

High domestic prices The decline is mainly due to high prices in the domestic market. Spot jeera prices at Unjha market have surged more than 30 per cent this year to ₹16,500-17,000 a quintal on October 30 from what was at ₹11,360 a year ago.

“Last year, China was a major buyer. But this time it is not buying because of its own crop. Also, there has been distress selling by traders in Dubai. This hampered the sentiment and in spite of strong fundamental reasons for bullish trend, we are experiencing bearish trend,” said Shailesh Shah, Director, Jabs International Pvt Ltd, one of the spice exporters.

India’s crop size is estimated at around 400,000 tonnes, with 70,000 tonnes considered as carry-over stock.

Crop size “There was crop damage to the tune of around 30 per cent due to rains. This caused a short-term bullish trend in jeera around May this year. But that did not last long amid lack of exports and higher stock of poor quality. Therefore, prices fell from its peak and remained stable at around ₹15,000 a quintal in spot market,” said Arvind Patel, a jeera expert from Unjha.

Due to uncertain price and poor monsoon in key growing regions, farmers have decided to turn to alternate crops for the next sowing season, which begins by the end of this year.

“Jeera would require moisture and water for the winter sowing. The monsoon has been weak this year and there is going to be a problem in jeera sowing. We will choose alternate crops such as coriander, chana or mustard, which have given better price and can adjust in the current situation,” said Jayesh Gajera from Makiyala village in Junagadh district of Saurashtra.

Gujarat is the largest cumin seed producer accounting for 75-80 per cent share in the domestic production.

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