Turmeric prices are ruling lower by over ₹1,000 a quintal compared with last year on slack domestic offtake but export demand is preventing further fall in the rates.

Currently, the modal price (rates at which most trades take place) for the finger variety turmeric at Erode in Tamil Nadu is ruling at ₹6,183 a quintal against ₹7,790 in the year-ago period. In the case of the bulb variety, the modal price is 5,413 against ₹6,594 a year ago. 

At the Nanded agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yard in Maharashtra, the modal price is ₹6,000 compared with ₹7,200 a year ago. On NCDEX, spot prices for unpolished turmeric were quoted at ₹6,452.35 a quintal. In Nizamabad APMC yard, the modal rate is ₹5,751 against ₹6,520.

Shipments up 10%

“Demand in the domestic market is slack, resulting in prices trading in a ₹100-200 range either way. But demand for export is good and it has actually prevented the spice’s price from dipping further,” said Poonam Chand Gupta, a trader from Nizamabad, Telangana.

“Export demand is good amidst lukewarm domestic demand. You can say prices are at the bottom now. Export demand has ensured prices don’t decline further,” said Amrutlal Kataria, another trader from Nizamabad. 

According to Spices Board India data, turmeric exports were up 10 per cent during April-November period of the current fiscal at 1.12 lakh tonnes valued at $140.94 million. During the same period last fiscal, shipments were nearly one lakh tonnes valued at $134.81 million. 

“Turmeric exports are subdued a bit due to the recent rains in parts of Maharashtra. But they have been steady this fiscal,” said Sunil Patil, Proprietor, Varadlaxmi Trading Company in Sangli, Maharashtra. 

Lower output seen

One of the reasons for turmeric to rule low this year is a huge ending stock from last year. In addition, this year’s production is unclear with the market still assessing damages due to rains. 

Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June to July) was estimated at 13.30 lakh tonnes (lt) compared with 11.23 lt in 2020-21. A study made by Olam Spices and presented at the International Spices ConLgress in January projected turmeric output this year at 13.14 lt. 

Though the production has been estimated lower, the ending stock of 1.7 lt could be a dampener. “We are waiting for arrivals to pick up, especially from Nanded and Vidarbha regions,” Patil said.

While the crop in Maharashtra is reported to have been affected by water-logging, production in Tamil Nadu and diversion of 5 lakh bags  (50 kg each) of turmeric in Karnataka from extraction units could make up the shortage, he said.

Short-term pressure likely

“We expect turmeric production to be at least 90 per cent of last year’s output,” said Kataria. 

“Production could be 20 per cent lower than last year. But we will get a clear picture over the next few weeks,” said Gupta.

In the short-term, turmeric prices could come under pressure from arrivals in Maharashtra, Patil said, adding that he would not be surprised if prices drop to levels of ₹5,500 since supplies are expected to continue till June. 

Kataria said exports could swing prices either way depending on the demand emerging around April. Gupta said the market could be stable as there is nothing special for it to react.

However, if the El Nino, a weather phenomenon that has an impact on the Indian monsoon, emerges then turmeric prices could tend to move northward, said Patil.

“The quality of carryover stocks is not up to mark. Therefore, the market will tend to rise in case of the El Nino emerging,” he said, adding that prices would tend to rise after July. 

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