A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely forming over the Bay of Bengal off the Odisha coast by Monday (June 26) and is expected to set up the crucial first low-pressure area of the monsoon by Wednesday and bring seasonal rains to Central India and North India, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

Slow, measured progress

As of Thursday, the monsoon is on or just ahead of time in parts of East India while it is delayed over parts of Peninsular India, entire Central India, and parts of West and North-West India by several days.

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It is due in the national capital in the next three days but will have reached only parts of Peninsular India, Maharashtra, and Central and North India by early next week (beginning Monday). 

Moist monsoon easterlies

As if preparing to leave space for the fresh ‘low,’ an existing one (remnant of cyclone Biparjoy) persisting over Central Uttar Pradesh for the past few days will start to fade out tomorrow (Saturday).

A trough running from South Punjab extending to the system will reach out to the Odisha-West Bengal coast off the North-West Bay of Bengal by Saturday. This will act as the conduit for moist monsoon easterly winds from the Bay to blow across the northern parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains. 

Heavy rain for West Coast

An existing cyclonic circulation parked off the North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts will be a proxy for the ensuing ‘low’ under the watch of a friendly East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence from above. 

Outlook for the week of June 29 to July 5 said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely along the West Coast and Gujarat state while it would be isolated heavy over the rest of these areas.

Above-normal for North-East

Ongoing heavy rainfall regime over North-East India will persist with isolated heavy to very heavy rain. Scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershower is likely over many parts of North-West India except West Rajasthan during the first half of the week before petering out. 

Overall, rainfall may stay above normal over the West Coast and Gujarat and adjoining areas of West-Central India, North-East India, and near normal over the rest parts of the country. But it would likely be below normal over the hills of North-West India, parts of East-Central India, and some parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

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