India Meteorological Department (IMD) has extended by 2-3 days the wait for the monsoon onset over the Kerala coast after it failed to arrive on Friday (May 27), five days earlier than the normal June 1, as it had predicted. The monsoon has, however, advanced into more parts of the south Arabian Sea, the entire Maldives and adjoining Lakshadweep and more parts of the Comorin area. The westerly winds that bring the monsoon have strengthened in the lower levels over the south Arabian Sea and deepened, the IMD said.

Satellite imagery

As per satellite imagery, there is increase in cloudiness over the Kerala coast and the adjoining south-east Arabian Sea. Hence, conditions are becoming favourable for not just the onset during next 2-3 days but also for its further advance into more parts of the Arabian Sea and the Lakshadweep. But global models suspect that the monsoon may take much longer to precipitate classical onset conditions because, for one, it does not have a friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave to hitch a ride on. For another, it has to contend with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nibbling away at the monsoon flows midway.

‘Suppressed precipitation’

‘Suppressed precipitation until June 7’ is their consensus view which will once again cause maximum day temperatures to shoot up over North-West, Central and parts of Peninsular India until May 31 and slightly lower in intensity over Peninsular India during June 1-7 — thanks to the delayed arrival and patchy progress of the monsoon. While North-West India will continue to sizzle, East and North-East will benefit from the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon.

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Monsoon onset is being delayed, according to Skymet Weather, while India Meteorological Department (IMD) says it is on course. Satellite pictures showed some cloud cover over the Arabian Sea on Thursday noon but much lover the Bay.

Monsoon onset being delayed, country may have missed the bus, says Skymet

GP Sharma, President, Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, doubted if the monsoon would make an onset ‘within the next 2-3 days.’ He told BusinessLine it is difficult to surmise from conditions obtaining on Friday that all the equisite parameters for declaring an onset would be satisfied objectively during this period. Incidentally, both Thiruvananthapuram and Kochi witnessed bright sun through most part of the day, though windy at times, with no hint of clouds.

Monsoon pushed back

DS Pai, former scientist and head of Climate Research at IMD Pune, and currently Director at the Institue for Climate Change Studies, Kottayam, Kerala, said monsoon has been pushed back mainly by a sudden burst in western disturbance activity over North-West India. “It is always a fight between a concurrent monsoon system and a prevailing western disturbance. It is natural that the stronger of the two prevails.” A strong western disturbance hit North-West India just as the monsoon was taking off from Sri Lanka. The disturbance killed a record-breaking heat wave over North-West and Central India but the incoming monsoon was forced to take a step back.

This had come after cyclone ‘Asani’ had helped the monsoon in early at the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as also at Sri Lanka, Pai said. A subsequent depression went towards Myanmar. It will take some time for the monsoon flows to re-converge fully, a process currently on. This should culminate in setting up the onset over Kerala in the next 2-3 days. “But global models are suggesting that the onset would be less than impressive,” he added.

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