IMD forecast above-average monsoon rains in next two weeks

India is likely to get above-average rainfall in the next two weeks after receiving below average rains in the past two weeks, a weather department official said on Thursday, helping summer-sown crops that were wilting in some areas due to a dry spell.

Monsoon rains are crucial for farm output and economic growth as about 55 per cent of India's arable land relies on rainfall and agriculture forms about 15 per cent of a $2.5 trillion economy.

“In the next two weeks, we are likely to get above average rainfall, which will be well distributed across the country,” said A. K. Srivastava, head of the climate research division at India Meteorological Department.

The monsoon rains were 35 per cent below average in the week ending July 24, after receiving 20 per cent less rainfall in the prior week, raising concerns over the output of summer-sown crops.

Overall, the country has received 17 per cent less rain than average since the monsoon season began on June 1, but in some states such as Gujarat, the biggest producer of cotton and groundnut, the rainfall deficit is as high as 42 per cent.

Sowing in many areas has been delayed and crops are facing moisture stress due to scanty rainfall, said Prerana Desai, head of research at Edelweiss Rural & Corporate Services Limited.

“But good rainfall in next few days can bring down stress level and accelerate sowing,” Desai said.

The farmers have planted an array of summer-sown crops on 56.7 million hectares as of July 19, down 6.9 per cent year on year, agriculture ministry data showed.

India is still recovering from a drought last year that ravaged crops, killed livestock, emptied reservoirs and drained water supplies to city dwellers and some industries.

Water levels in main reservoirs were at 24 per cent of their storage capacity, against 32 per cent at the same time last year, the latest government data shows. The average for the past 10 years is 28 per cent.

The above-average rainfall is likely to bring down the rainfall deficit to single digit by the end of August from 17 per cent now, said an official with the IMD, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

IMD has forecast average rainfall in 2019. The private forecaster Skymet has predicted below-normal rainfall.

A normal, or average, monsoon means rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm (35 inches) during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, according to the IMD's classification.

The edible oil imports are likely to rise 7.3 per cent in 2019/20 to a record high as weak monsoon rains curtail yields of summer-sown oilseeds such as soybeans and groundnut, a senior industry official said earlier this week.

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