India likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall as a whole till July

The APEC Climate Centre in Busan, South Korea, continues to favour a normal to above normal rainfall regime for India as a whole during the spring and summer of this year (2022) extending into the first two months (June and July) of the 2022 South-West monsoon.

The South Korean agency sees enhanced probability for below normal temperatures for India during these months, likely due to the cloud cover and enhanced rainfall. Along with India, the agency said that above normal precipitation is expected for Australia during this period.

Cooler summer for North India

Cooler than normal temperatures are indicated for almost the entire northern half of the country during the entire six-month-period from February for which forecasts are available. Part of the North Peninsula (southwards from Maharashtra-Telangana and Andhra Pradesh) may be warmer than the North of the country.

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Earlier in December, APEC Climate Centre had forecast mostly normal rain for India during January to March, which has materialised more or less along predicted lines till date. In fact, almost all geographic regions in the country have received normal to above normal rainfall during this period already.

Updated forecast from February

The updated February-based predictions available indicate some revisions in the outlook, and point to the possibility of below-normal rain for North-West India and Gujarat starting from the current month (February). The updated monthly outlook for rainfall is as follows:

February: Above normal except over North-West India, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

March: The February situation improves, with above normal rainfall extending into all parts of the country except Gujarat, south-west Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Rain is forecast to resume over Punjab, most of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.

Fluctuating fortunes in North

April: Once again, North-West India might return to a deficit situation, with the drier climes extending from Gujarat into Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and fringes of north Madhya Pradesh. The rest of India may witness normal to above normal rainfall, even more so in Kerala.

May: The situation improves over North-West India with the dry patch likely being limited to to west Rajasthan, west and north-west Gujarat, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh. Normal to above normal rain is indicated for Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. Kerala and coastal Karnataka will be outlier divisions in terms of excess rain, with the rest of the South Peninsula likely witnessing normal to above normal rainfall.

Early monsoon trends

June: The first monsoon month will likely see a good spread of rain across the country. It will be above normal to excess for the West Coast, especially the stretch from south Gujarat-Mumbai to Goa as also Central India and adjoining east India, Delhi and Chandigarh.

July: Below normal rainfall for Kerala and coastal and north interior Karnataka as also parts of and extreme North-East. Normal to above for rest of the country (including Gujarat).

All in all, the February-March-April that covers the spring and early summer (pre-monsoon) will likely return below normal rainfall for North-West India and west Uttar Pradesh while being normal to above normal for the rest of the country. May-June-July (pre-monsoon to the first two months of the monsoon) is likely to be normal to above normal for the whole country, especially Central and east India.

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