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India Meteorological Department (IMD) is of the view that the apparent disquiet in the east equatorial Pacific will hopefully translate into ‘normal' South-West monsoon.
A moderate-to-weak but progressively weakening La Nina is expected to relapse into a ‘neutral' phase after June - and not morph into an El Nino, a potential spoilsport.
CLOSER SCRUTINY
This has prompted monsoon watchers closer home to train their eyes over their own backyard and subject the Indian Ocean for closer scrutiny.
They are studying the sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns for any change in the status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD mimics the larger EL Nino-La Nina events locally, with a direct and more immediate impact on Indian monsoon.
The Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change under the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology said in its latest forecast that a weak negative IOD could unfold during the latter half of the monsoon.
NEGATIVE IOD
A negative IOD comes about when the east Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than the west. This can potentially harm the prospects of an Indian monsoon.
The IMD too has taken note of the emerging situation, and said that the ocean surface temperatures would be closely monitored during the period ahead for any signs of further warning.
Meanwhile, in a weather outlook on Wednesday evening, the IMD said that a gradual rise is indicated in maximum temperatures over northwest, west and adjoining central India during the rest of this week.
Mainly dry weather is expected to prevail over northwest India, Gujarat and adjoining central India until Monday.
Global models also have been showing a calibrated rise in daytime temperatures, with the hottest spots likely to emerge first across the border in Pakistan.
MAXIMUM HEATING
Maximum heating would later radiate into Rajasthan, Gujarat and adjoining central India as the skies clear up.
This would also mean that the frequency of western disturbances would be drastically reduced at least for the time being.
The disturbed weather pattern over northwest, east and peninsular India continued overnight until Wednesday morning, an IMD update said.
Fairly widespread rain or snow was reported from Jammu and Kashmir while it was scattered over Himachal Pradesh and isolated over Uttarakhand.
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